Sectionally Speaking: Providence was tough when it counted to take out the Derby

Cover image courtesy of Trackside Photography

Providence enjoys the hot speed and takes the Derby spoils

The field went through the first 1800 metres more than seven lengths above standard in the G1 Queensland Derby at Eagle Farm on Saturday, creating the perfect scenario for seasoned, tough performers - horses that had been there and done that.

With Providence (Wootton Bassett {GB}) already having a G1 VRC Derby run under his belt, he was ready for the fight.

His overall winning time was more than a length inside standard, although his late splits were a touch weak. His final 600 metres was almost five lengths below standard, though it should be noted he wasn't slowing dramatically through the line. Relative to class expectations, his final 200 metres rated similarly to his 600m to 400m section, which could suggest he thrives in high-pressure races.

The runner-up, Monopolistic (NZ) (Savabeel), still looks to have plenty of upside. It feels as though he's six months behind Providence in his development and, if he doesn't head to Hong Kong, he could develop into a genuine G1 Metropolitan Handicap prospect.

Solid Gold (NZ) (Savabeel) backs up into the G1 Queensland Oaks after being the lone filly to contest the Derby. However, the race shape last weekend is not ideal for a seven-day turnaround. That will be her challenge and, if she can overcome it, it will be another sign that she's an ultra-tough filly.

The JJ Atkins picture becomes clearer

The picture for the final G1 of the season for the juveniles, the G1 JJ Atkins, became much clearer when Berzelius (Extreme Choice) won the G2 Sires Produce Stakes over 1400 metres.

There are two reasons for that.

Firstly, less than two lengths covered the first four home, despite the race being run almost four lengths below standard overall with only fair late splits.

Secondly, there was the performance of Tron Bolt (Toronado {Ire}) in the Rosehill opener, run around an hour earlier. While his overall time was also slow, his late splits suggested there was plenty left in reserve. The numbers indicate Tron Bolt holds a clear edge over the Group 2 performers in Queensland.

Even Rosehill runner-up Cormier (Maurice {Jpn}) would measure up favourably against the Sires' Produce form based on what we saw last weekend.

It will be interesting to see whether Paul Messara decides to head north with Cormier. For mine, he's the only horse capable of beating Tron Bolt.

How he does that is relatively simple - a genuinely run 1600 metres.

Don't get me wrong, Tron Bolt could easily go to another level in a high-pressure race and, if he does, we're dealing with an exceptional galloper. However, he showed a superior turn of foot to Cormier at Rosehill and, if the G1 JJ Atkins turns into a war of attrition, that dash may count for very little.

Savagery Vibe upsets

Savagery Vibe (Brutal {NZ}) caused an upset at $71 in the Listed Helen Coughlan Stakes over 1200 metres.

Her Eagle Farm 1200-metre record is exemplary, with three wins and a second from just four starts.

The race rated bang on average for Listed grade, which is not a bad effort for a mare who was contesting a BM78 only two starts earlier.

Alalcance back in the winners' circle

It was good to see the older mare Alalcance (GB) (Mastercraftsman {Ire}) return to the winners' circle in the G3 Premier's Cup over 2400 metres.

It was her first run at the distance this preparation and she relished the fast tempo, recording a winning time more than two lengths inside standard.

Runner-up Bella Montagna (NZ) (Belardo {Ire}) might be the horse to follow into the G2 Brisbane Cup.

It was only her third run of the campaign and her recent form lines through Nobler (Ger) (Amaron {GB}) and Monopolistic at Gosford have both rated strongly. She can only improve off this performance.

At the same time last year, she was shaping as a G1 Queensland Oaks prospect before heading to the paddock.

Some will point out that Monopolistic went straight past her at Gosford. Remind them she conceded him 7kg there and, should they meet again during the spring, the weights will almost certainly be much closer.

The well-bred Ertijaaj goes back-to-back

Ertijaaj (GB) (Night Of Thunder {Ire}) made it two wins on the bounce with a tough, on-pace performance in the BM72 over 1500 metres at Rosehill.

She's now won on both a Good track in Melbourne and a Heavy track in Sydney, and she possesses the turn of foot of a handy horse.

The challenge will be getting her to sustain that speed for longer than she currently can.

Chris Waller's placement has been meticulous and, if the numbers are anything to go by, spot on.

Without getting too deep into the weeds, if she dropped back in distance she probably wouldn't have the speed to win. Equally, if she stepped up in trip and encountered a genuinely run race, it could expose her.

Right now, she needs conditions to fall her way, but Waller has a knack for stretching the sprint of these types as they mature. If that happens with Ertijaaj, she could develop into a stakes-grade 2000-metre horse.

Hearcomesthestar shines at Caulfield

Finally, Hearcomesthestar (Zoustar) was the standout performer on what was otherwise a frustrating day at Caulfield.

Her overall time was inside standard and, when combined with a final 600 metres nearly four lengths above standard, it suggests she's more than capable of measuring up to this grade and potentially higher.

However, she won in Lane 27 and the data showed that eight of the 10 winners were in Lane 8 or wider entering the home straight.

The final winner of the day hugged the fence, but its last 200 metres was more than one second slower than any other winner on the program.

What that means is simple: sticking to the fence cost runners around six lengths per 200 metres at Caulfield on Saturday.

That's simply not good enough.

Let's hope the club can get it sorted before one of the best carnivals of the year — the G1 Caulfield Cup Carnival.