Predicting next season’s Second Season Sire winner

Cover image courtesy of Coolmore Stud

With Home Affairs dominating the First Season Sire Championship as the 2025/26 winds down, there’s an interesting question which will begin to be answered in the spring of 2026/27. Which stallion’s progeny will improve as their first crop turns three?

This season, the Second Season Sire table has been a tight battle with Wootton Bassett (GB), Farnan, Bivouac, and Ghaiyyath (Ire) all in contention with a month to go. Ole Kirk won last year’s First Season Sire Championship and he added a Group 1 winner in the spring with Ole Dancer to currently sit in fifth on the Second Season Sire table.

Of the quartet heading this season’s Second Season Sire table, they weren’t all up there on last season’s First Season Sire Table. Wootton Bassett was second and Farnan third, but Bivouac was eighth and Ghaiyyath ended his first season in 19th position with two winners from 15 runners that season.

Ghaiyyath quickly put his hand up this season with Observer leading the charge into the classic races where he won the G1 Victoria Derby and G1 Australian Guineas. Ghaiyyath was a much better older horse than he was a juvenile, being a Group 3 winner at two and three and a Group 1 winner at four and five.

Hence the question: which of the current First Season Sires were better racehorses at three? Logic would expect their progeny should follow the same pattern.

Of the 30 first season sires who retired to stud in 2022 and have rising 3-year-olds, 15 were better racehorses at three than they were at two. Five stayed at the same level, and ten were better at two than they were at three. The good juveniles in this current group, being Stay Inside, Captivant, Sword Of State and Tiger Of Malay, have all made strong starts and like G1 Golden Slipper winner Farnan, they should be expected to hold their own coming into next season.

Home Affairs must be short odds

Already leading the Champion First Season Sire table with an unassailable lead, thanks to G1 Golden Slipper winner Guest House, Home Affairs should be short odds to see his progeny improve again from two to three.

Not only did he receive massive books at a high fee for his first four seasons at stud, he was a better 3-year-old than he was a 2-year-old.

Home Affairs stood his first season at $110,000 including GST and covered 203 mares resulting in 145 live foals. Of those, 49 have raced for 14 winners and four stakes winners. He has a further five stakes placegetters in his first crop. His second crop, at a fee of $99,000 including GST, numbers 141 foals who are about to turn two.

But it is his own race record, and pedigree, that suggests more is to come for him. A good juvenile who won the G2 Silver Slipper and placed in the G2 Todman Stakes and G3 Canonbury Stakes, Home Affairs came out flying at three.

He won the Listed Heritage Stakes and the sire-making G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes before adding the G1 Lightning Stakes against the older horses in the autumn, beating Horse Of The Year Nature Strip (Nicconi).

“If a 3-year-old colt can beat the older horses in a very high class race like the Lightning Stakes, you’ve got a very good sire prospect on your hands,” Colm Santry said.

“And even more so when they're by champion sires. Home Affairs, Fastnet Rock, and Choisir all had the speed and class to beat older horses, and that's transferrable as a stallion.”

Unraced at four, Home Affairs comes from a sireline known to improve with age, being by Champion Sire I Am Invincible who is a son of Invincible Spirit (Ire). All of this makes Home Affairs short odds to also take out the Champion Second Season Sire award in 2026/27.

Wild Ruler and Jonker were better as older horses

Wild Ruler currently sits in third on the First Season Sire table with nine winners and two stakes winners. Logic would suggest that his progeny will improve at three, given his own race record. Winner of the R.Listed Inglis Nursery at two, he was a dual Group 2 winner at three and placed in the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes behind September Run (Exceed And Excel) and Swats That (Shamus Award).

At four, Wild Ruler won the G1 AJ Moir Stakes to tick off that important Group 1 victory for his stud career. He stood his first two seasons at $38,500 including GST, with 120 foals in his first crop and 89 in his second.

Stretan Ruler won the G2 Silver Slipper Stakes, and was last seen when fifth in the G1 Golden Slipper. Queen Regent won the Listed Woodlands Stakes at her second career start recently. Given both were autumn and winter stakes winners, this also bodes well for the future of Wild Ruler.

Jonker fits a similar mould as Wild Ruler, winning his Group 1 as an older horse. A Listed winner at two, he won the G1 Manikato Stakes as a 6-year-old. Much like Ghaiyyath last season, Jonker currently sits in 16th on the First Season Sire table with three winners of four races, with his best so far being the dual winner Gone Country.

Palace Pier (GB), who only shuttled for one season, was a Group 1 winner at three and four and has sired Group 3 winner Southend in his first crop here. He has four stakes winners in the Northern Hemisphere.

Portland Sky wasn't seen at two

Currently 14th on the First Season Sire table, Portland Sky has three winners led by Daryte who also ran fourth in the R.Listed Magic Millions WA 2YO Classic.

Unraced at two, the son of Deep Field won the G1 Oakleigh Plate at three in a season where he also won twice at Group 3 level and placed in the G1 Manikato Stakes. He trained on at four, placing at Group 2 level in one of his two starts at that age.

With 69 foals in his first crop and 61 in his second, he has numbers on his side to show plenty of improvement into next season. With Deep Field's ongoing success in Hong Kong, there ought to be plenty of interest in Portland Sky's progeny from that region where they almost never race as 2-year-olds.

Steady from two to three

Five stallions from this cohort raced at the same level from two to three. Finance Tycoon was a Group 3 winner at both two and three, while Pinatubo (GB), St Mark’s Basilica (Fr) and Victor Ludorum (GB) were Group 1 winners at two and three. Victor Ludorum was the only one of the three Group 1 winners who trained on at four, adding a Group 3 victory.

The trio of shuttle sires were all high class. Pinatubo was a dual Group 1 winner at two and added the G1 Prix Jean Prat at three. He has sired five winners this season, including Listed winner Voynichese, to currently sit in second on the First Season Sire table. Pinatubo has nine stakes winners in the Northern Hemisphere.

Winner of the G1 Dewhurst at two, St Mark’s Basilica won four more Group 1 races at three and is sixth on the table. He has unbeaten Listed winning colt Aristopolos in Tasmania among his five local winners, with exciting 3-year-old filly Diamond Necklace (Ire) dominating in the Northern Hemisphere.

Both Victor Ludorum and Finance Tycoon have had three runners this season without a winner.

The fifth in this group is a footnote only, unraced Craiglea Boz would normally go unnoticed. He only had four live foals in his only crop before he died in 2023, but his only runner to date, Craiglea Monnie is a winner. In many ways, he represents the type of stallion who is disappearing from our industry. The horse who stands on his owner’s farm and only covers a few hobby mares each season.

When we talk about how we’ve gone from over 3000 stallions at stud in the 1980s to merely 412 in 2024, it is primarily stallions like Craiglea Boz who have disappeared. And yet, he has value to his owners, having sired a winner from his only runner to date.