In this month's Science Corner, we look at what we can predict across the industry. How can the choice of sire influence a progeny's performance in the ring and on the track? Can we catch a musculoskeletal injury with a sensor before it happens? The latest research is illuminating.
Each month, we break down five recently published scientific studies that could affect the way we breed, train, and race Thoroughbreds. We explain what the research found and what it means for you.
You can click the title of each paper to read it in full.
#1. Older sire associated with less success on the track
What’s it about?
In this study supported by AgriFutures Australia, researchers in the Hunter Valley region examined the race track performance of over 33,000 foals by 35 stallions, and assessed their success and their sires’ fertility rate against the stallion’s age at conception.
Foals | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Key findings:
Progeny conceived by stallions aged eight or under were more likely to make it to the track, and place in or win a stakes race, than those sired by stallions aged 19 or over at the time of conception.
Stallions aged 19 or over showed a significant decline in fertility versus all younger stallion groups.
What it means for you:
When breeding, it is important to consider that the stallion is half of the equation, and ensuring your mare is set up for success through stallion selection is vital. While the study does acknowledge there will always be a cohort of older stallions who defy the trend, it is worth bearing in mind the effects of age on a stallion’s fertility and racetrack results.
#2. Horses flagged as high risk by biometric sensors are more likely to suffer injury
What’s it about?
The American Association of Equine Practitioners (AAEP) performed a year-long study in 2025 - the AAEP Wearable Biometric Sensor Research Project - where six different gait sensor technologies were used to monitor over 560 2-year-olds throughout the year for soundness concerns. Four sensor companies reported sufficient data to be analysed. Note that the full text of this study is not online yet.
Key findings:
Between February and December 2025, biometric sensors collected data from 561 horses across 4252 breezes. In total, 221 musculoskeletal injuries were reported by the companies; 142 bone and 79 soft tissue.
Horses flagged with a yellow or red sensor reading were approximately twice as likely to sustain a musculoskeletal issue compared to those with green readings, and the likelihood of injury increased progressively in horses receiving multiple yellow or red warnings.
What it means for you:
This study shines a light on the use of gait sensors as part of a trainer’s toolkit to prevent injury. Alogo, Arioneo, StableAnalytics, and StrideSafe were the participating companies with enough data for analysis, and it was noted that none of them appeared to interfere with the training regimes of study participants, making their use all the more appealing to the modern trainer.
#3. High workloads compound on the skeleton over time
What’s it about?
This study completed at the University of Melbourne endeavoured to look at the build up of bone fatigue before a musculoskeletal injury. By estimating a bone fatigue accumulation rating for each horse based on race speed and number of strides in a race, in combination with assessed workload, they modelled the likelihood of injury against a horse’s fatigue rating.
Radiography of the foot | Image courtesy of University of Melbourne Equine Center
Key findings:
Horses with higher rates of bone fatigue accumulation over a one start period and over their career had a greater risk of incurring injury.
High workloads across the horse’s previous four runs led to the mean time period before injury being less than half that of horses experiencing medium workloads.
What it means for you:
Having the horse fit and ready for race day is important, and it is equally important to not overtax a horse each preparation either. This study also highlights the potential for wearable biometric sensors to help catch a horse suffering increased bone fatigue before it becomes an injury.
#4. Parentage is the best predictor of sales ring success
What’s it about?
This study undertaken by a team at DePauw University looked at using machine learning to predict the auction prices of Thoroughbred yearlings based on historical data from the Keeneland September Yearling Sale.
Key findings:
The reputation and record of the sire and dam were the strongest predictors of price.
Ridge regression, a type of regularisation that reduces errors in linear regression models, explained 54% of the out-of-sample variation.
What it means for you:
Pedigree on the page still reigns supreme as the best predictor for how a yearling will sell. This paper serves as a reminder to examine matings closely when making commercial breeding decisions destined for the sales ring.
#5. Summer heralds harder tracks and faster races
What’s it about?
In this study funded by the New Zealand Equine Trust, researchers used raceday data across 16 seasons in New Zealand to find associations between the track condition score, the racing speed over the last 600 metres, and the number of race starts, whilst also looking at 7 seasons worth of injury data to find relationships between the monthly incidence rate and other metrics.
Ellerslie race track in New Zealand | Image courtesy of Racing News NZ
Key findings:
In the summer, tracks consistently experienced higher race speeds, more race starts, and more variation in turf condition score, although the scores also got lower.
Seasonal changes had a positive association with increased incidences of injury.
What it means for you:
This study underlines what trainers already know about how the condition of a track can affect how a race plays out. It also highlights the importance of observing how the tracks are changing between seasons and with heavy use of the surface.
