How many is too many? Australia’s black type numbers

Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything

The Asian Pattern Committee are due to outline their recommendations on the Australian Black Type for the upcoming season. This has fuelled plenty of speculation that there are too many black type races, and particularly, too many Group 1 races.

But how do we stack up internationally? The Asian Pattern Committee report to the International Federation Of Horseracing Authority who run the black type bible, aka the Blue Book.

The Blue Book outlines all the horse racing nations in the world. Everyone is neatly placed into four levels from Part 1 to Part 4. Additionally, the Blue Book contains all the necessary data to compare each nation against each other.

Australia is one of 16 Part 1 nations, allowing us to have a four-tiered black type system with Group 1, 2, 3 and Listed races.

Racing media and participants who label our black type racing as ‘bloated’ or ‘out of control’ or ‘too big’ fail to understand both the Blue Book rules and the importance of ratios.

To be fair, our own system here in Australia has failed to apply the Blue Book rules, which state:

“Part I a. Countries must have a Committee or Industry Group to provide oversight of, and maintain, the Group/Graded races in its country.”

And thus, now we have the messy process of having our own newly formed Black Type Advisory Group who have been tasked with discussing our black type with the Asian Pattern Committee who have, hopefully temporarily, taken over the process from Australia.

Where does Australia sit numbers-wise?

The Blue Book doesn’t give a preferred percentage of stakes races to races for Part I, because races are assessed by the local Pattern Committee on the quality of runners and graduates of that race over a minimum of a two-year period. The average across Part 1 is just a tick over 5% stakes races to races.

Part II nations have a maximum. “The percentage of black-type races to the total number of races run in that country will be taken into consideration, with a preference that it should be no higher than 3%.”

Australia gives 3.2%, so if that number does not comply with the Asian Pattern Committee and we get downgraded to Part II (unlikely but not implausible), Australia will have to go from 607 stakes races down to around 570 stakes races. All Group races become Listed races, and some of our Listed races will have to become city class.

That’s the worst case scenario.

But if Australia stays in Part 1, where do we rank?

Of the 16 Part 1 nations, Australia is second-last by % of stakes races to races. The average for Part I nations (not including UAE) is 5.1%, so at 3.2% Australia has a much lower percentage of stakes races than the majority of Part 1 nations.

This means that 14 of the 16 nations have a higher percentage of stakes races to races than Australia.

America, who are the biggest racing nation in the world, have 4.38% stakes races to race, resulting in 1281 black type races. They had 93 Group 1 races in 2025.

The reason for removing the UAE from that calculation is that they run a carnival with mostly imported horses over a short season with 20% black type races compared to all their racing, thus skewing the data too much.

"Everyone knows we have too many Group 1 races"

It’s become commonplace to hear this phrase around the sales rings, in conversations online, and across racing media: “Everyone knows we have too many Group 1 races.”

What everyone has forgotten is that Australian racing is massive on a global scale. The raw numbers are big. Of the 16 Part 1 nations, Australia ranks second in terms of races run. USA is first, Japan (including NAR) is third.

Australia ranks second by number of stakes races to USA, and second by number of Group 1 races, again to USA.

Australia is big, therefore raw numbers are big. The only way to work out if there are ‘too many’ is to look at ratios, and that’s where the discussion gets interesting.

Australia ranks 11th out of the 16 Part 1 nations on % of Group 1 races to races.

The range between major Part 1 nations is massive from 3% to 0.1%. Australia have 0.4% Group 1 races to all races run.

Across the four European Part 1 nations (Ire, GB, France, Germany), there are 86 Group 1 races at a ratio of 0.6%. If the same ratio is applied per number of races, Australia would be allowed 119 Group 1 races.

On the other hand, if USA’s ratio was applied it to Australia’s number of races, only 60 Group 1 races would run.

This makes the actual number of Group 1 races that would be sensible to have in Australia somewhere between 119 and 60. It's currently 76.

The actual issue is the balance of races.

It’s been eight years since Australia had a functioning Pattern Committee. That means it’s eight years since a group of experts sat down and properly examined the quality of each race.

In that time some Group 1 races haven’t flourished and should be downgraded. Other races have boomed and should be upgraded. There are rules in the Blue Book surrounding how to go about these upgrades and downgrades.

One race that always gets mentioned in the media is the G1 Victoria Derby. It’s too early, too long, too hard, etc. Yes, finding a precocious stayer is challenging, and maybe that’s why people complain about it.

We’ve recently heard the form from the race isn’t good, and yet three of the five past winners have added another Group 1 win afterwards. This season’s winner Observer won the G1 Australian Guineas in the autumn before heading to a stud career.

The year before, Goldrush Guru (American Pharoah {USA}) placed in the G1 Australian Guineas. Before that, Riff Rocket (American Pharoah {USA}) won the G1 Australian Derby before sadly succumbing to colic. And one year before that, Manzoice (Almanzor {Fr}) won and has added a Group 3 win.

Hitotsu, who won the G1 Victoria Derby five editions ago, won the G1 Australian Guineas and the G1 Australian Derby before heading to a stud career where his oldest are rising 2-year-olds.

Each race needs to be explored in depth by a group of experts, not simply the quality of this year’s field, but the quality over several years, and the depth of the graduates. Each race must stand on its long-term merits to remain part of the system.

It’s the job of the Asian Pattern Committee, now guided by Australia’s Black Type Advisory Group, to understand the complexity, the form, the historical significance, and the balance of all our races on a local and global stage and come up with an answer.

Table: Part 1 nations in the 2026 Blue Book and their 2024/25 racing season breakdowns