Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Form analyst Nic Ashman is back in the saddle with the wash-up from Saturday's racing and where he expects to see the winners head this spring. The star colts from last season returned in style at Rosehill and Caulfield, and a pair of Godolphin mares came on the radar with more in the tank to come.
Slow Memsie start benefits Beiwacht
Beiwacht (Bivouac) cruised through the first section of Saturday's 1400-metre G1 Memsie Stakes and that together with a favourable track pattern delivered a valuable victory for the Godolphin entire.
Resuming from a 126-day spell, Beiwacht went through the first 800 metres 0.58s slower than Group 1 standard, setting him up perfectly to unleash the closing splits that left his opposition in all sorts of trouble.
But first, let’s touch on the Caulfield track. Six of the 10 winners used Lanes 2, 3 or 4. That pattern made life tough, though not impossible, for backmarkers. The races where swoopers made their mark were generally over the longer trips with genuine pace.
In the shorter races run at even or moderate tempos, it was extremely difficult for off-pace runners to figure in the finish.
Three of the top four in running finished first, second, and fourth in the Memsie. The overall time was 0.38s outside standard time.
Beiwacht winning the G1 Memsie Stakes | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
It wasn’t a vintage edition in terms of ratings. Certainly you can forgive Cosmic Crusader (NZ) (Maurice {Jpn}); three wide without cover and settling ninth in run. His effort to charge home for third was more than commendable. But the problem for him now is all these horses will improve – was that his chance to snare a big one?
Buckaroo (GB) (Fastnet Rock) recorded the best last 1200 metres and 1000 metres of the day, and second fastest last 200 metres of the race. He's on track for the G1 Underwood Stakes if Chris Waller goes that way.
The Blue Army mares march onward
Still on Godolphin and 4-year-old mare Custom (Street Boss {USA}) keeps progressing. She tackled some of the best of her generation last season, but this time in was given some confidence boosters before aiming up at the G3 Courtza Stakes over 1200 metres.
Off an even tempo, she’s come home her last 600 metres in 34.56s (seventh fastest of the day) to beat standard time by 0.38s. The runner-up, Photograph (Blue Point {Ire}) - also Godolphin - recorded the best last 600 and 400 metres at the meeting.
Guest House's serious statement
One group of horses I wouldn’t be rushing to follow this spring is the Melbourne 3-year-old colts.
The G3 McNeil Stakes has often pointed us towards a promising type - Bel Esprit, Miss Finland (Redoute's Choice) and Jacquinot among them - but this year’s edition rated poorly. They covered the 1200 metres in 1:11.8s, almost a second outside standard time. Yes, the tempo was 0.60s below standard, but rather than making up for it late, they slipped further behind standard through the closing sections.
In stark contrast was the G3 San Domenico Stakes over 1100 metres at Rosehill, won by Guest House (Home Affairs). The G1 Golden Slipper Stakes winner made a serious statement on the weekend.
Blue Door (Stay Inside) hummed through the first 500 metres, going 0.65s faster than average for this grade, yet Guest House absorbed that pressure and still stopped the clock more than a second inside standard time.
In our post-Slipper analysis, we spoke about Guest House’s ability to absorb pressure. It was on full display here. He loves a dogfight and, when the pressure is sustained, he’s going to be the last man standing more often than not.
You can expect him to win the G2 Run To The Rose. The way to beat him is through lack of tempo. A slowly run race takes away his greatest asset and leaves him vulnerable to a horse with a sharper turn of foot. But when the pace is on, Guest House can absorb pressure better than most.
In a fast-run G1 The Everest, he’d be a major player.
The fascinating question is whether they can teach him to lead at a genuine clip without overracing. If they can, they may be able to remove his greatest vulnerability altogether.
The G3 Up And Coming Stakes didn’t catch the eye in the same way as the San Domenico. The overall rating was fair, although winner Plagiarism (Written By) is a horse who can roll along at a genuine tempo and keep kicking.
The best prospects coming out of this race are likely to be those capable of stretching out over further and progressing towards a Spring Champion Stakes.
She's back, baby!
I missed last week due to commitments at the Cairns Cup carnival, but Autumn Glow (The Autumn Sun) was supreme when defeating Sheza Alibi (Saxon Warrior {Jpn}) in the G1 Winx Stakes at Randwick.
The first 800 metres was run 0.40s faster than Group 1 average, which gave all horses their chance. Autumn Glow won with her head on her chest, eased down in a time that was 0.33s inside standard.
She’s back, baby.
