Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Saturday’s racing provided plenty for form analyst Nic Ashman to dissect, with potential G1 The Everest contenders, a new Group 1-winning mare and stakes-winning 3-year-old fillies and some veterans continuing to raise the bar for their connections.
Tempted burns the turf in ‘The Concorde’
Just 24 hours after Tempted (Street Boss {USA}) stunned the Randwick crowd and got tongues wagging about her chances in The Everest, Ka Ying Rising (NZ) (Shamexpress {NZ}) said: 'Hold my beer'.
Tempted clocked a blistering 55.60 seconds for the 1000 metres at Randwick in the G2 Concorde Stakes.
Only Eduardo (Host {Chi}) has gone quicker over the track and distance in more than half a decade.
It was the sort of performance that immediately had media pundits asking whether the Godolphin mare could 'turn the tables' on Ka Ying Rising in the 2026 Everest after finishing runner-up to the Hong Kong champion last year.
Then Ka Ying Rising broke the track record at Sha Tin on Sunday.
The immediate sentiment is understandable: if he arrives in Sydney in that sort of form, The Everest is his race to lose. But the question is whether we will see the same version of him at Randwick.
Last year, most ratings experts had Ka Ying Rising at least two lengths below his best, and some as much as three to four lengths below it, when he still managed to win the world’s richest turf race.
Given the time Tempted ran last weekend, and the fact most of us considered it a career peak, it is entirely plausible she will surpass the rating she produced when runner-up in The Everest 12 months ago when she returns to headquarters on October 17.
There is, however, a word of caution when comparing the performances.
While Randwick was officially rated a Good 4, we had the track performing more like a Good 3 last weekend.
That said, Sha Tin may have been even hotter on Sunday.
Which leaves us with a fascinating question heading towards October: how much improvement does Tempted have, and how close to his absolute best will Ka Ying Rising be when he gets back to Randwick?
Racing is the real winner.
Bangkok Hottie claims the Furious - what do the times tell us?
The G2 Furious Stakes presented as an intriguing contest, with last-start winners Pembrey (Prague) and Chilly Girl (Trapeze Artist) facing off in the 3-year-old fillies’ feature.
Pembrey was backed off the map. Her G2 Silver Shadow Stakes victory was the fastest performance we’ve seen on Soft ground at headquarters this year. But she went much slower through the first 600 metres here than she did in the Silver Shadow.
Averaging just 11.8 seconds through the first three 200-metre sections, Pembrey had every chance to dart away but compounded quickly. Vets later noted she pulled up with poor recovery, as did the punters who charged into her!
Pembrey | Image courtesy of The image Is Everything
Bangkok Hottie (Too Darn Hot {GB}) sat outside the leader and won in moderate time from Chilly Girl. Their late splits were solid without being outstanding.
Backmarkers Striking Alibi (Hanseatic) and Cherry Bomshell (Lucky Vega {Ire}) had no hope given the race shape, both can be followed.
I saw some people questioning the tactics employed by David Payne and Kerrin McEvoy on Bangkok Hottie and herein lies a great example of why you should analyse the data before opening your trap.
Bangkok Hottie, like Pembrey, ran in the Silver Shadow Stakes. She settled back in the field off a hot pace, averaging 11.80 seconds per 200 metres through the first 600 metres on Soft 5 going, I might add.
Guess what?
Last Saturday, when she won the Furious Stakes, Bangkok Hottie averaged 11.80 seconds per 200 metres through the first 600 metres. The exact same raw speed as her previous run. The difference? Her opponents went slower.
So the question shouldn’t be, 'Why was she outside the lead?' It should be: 'Why did the rest go slower?'
Bangkok Hottie winning the G2 Furious Stakes | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Lindermann wins a slowly run Chelmsford and Headley Grange impresses
Lindermann (Lonhro) won an extremely slowly run G2 Chelmsford Stakes. He was barely tested in front, going around 10 lengths below standard through the first 1000 metres before sprinting home.
There wasn’t much opportunity for those behind him given the race shape.
Headley Grange (Exosphere) clocked the third-fastest last 200 metres of the day to reel in Soothsayer (Divine Prophet) in an above-average edition of the G2 Tramway Stakes. He was heavily supported in betting, and both the market and the clock suggest he’s in for a good preparation.
My Gladiola claims Group 1 glory
Down in Melbourne, the G1 Moir Stakes was run on a wet track, with My Gladiola (I Am Invincible) producing a big performance for trainer John McArdle to win the Group 1 1000-metre feature.
Her overall time was around four lengths inside standard.
Being fresh at 1000 metres might be the key to this mare reaching, and potentially surpassing her previous peak ratings.
She was excellent when runner-up to Tentyris in the G1 Lightning Stakes first-up last preparation, and again produced her best fresh on Saturday.
My Gladiola | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Pretty Baby keeps on winning
Another star of the meeting was Pretty Baby (Barbados), who won the Listed Atlantic Jewel Stakes over 1300 metres for trainers Gordon Richards and Damien Moyle.
She bolted in, running an overall time around six lengths inside standard. She’s got the picket fence next to her name and continues to raise the bar.
The only question now is: how long can she hold this form?
