‘The highest number we’ve ever given’: Rob Waterhouse on Ka Ying Rising

Cover image courtesy of The Hong Kong Jockey Club

On Sunday evening, Ka Ying Rising (NZ) (Shamexpress {NZ}) smashed his own Sha Tin 1200 metre record by a second, setting a time of 1:06.11 carrying a hefty 61kg. It’s not officially the fastest 1200 metre time in the world, but importantly, it is the fastest from a standing start.

“The time was sensational. Everyone who does times works out the track standards. We've done that for Sha Tin, and Ka Ying Rising has returned the highest possible number we've ever given,” Rob Waterhouse told TTR.

TTR also spoke to a professional punter and ratings expert who didn’t want to be named and he agreed.

“Ka Ying Rising ran a 151-rated time with my system which is the highest I’ve ever given a horse.”

But when is time really time?

Ka Ying Rising currently sits fourth fastest globally on raw times for 1200 metres. The fastest 1200 metre ever set globally was Disco Partner (USA) (Disco Rice {USA}) who set a time of 1:05.67 in 2017 at Belmont. Both America and Japan don’t start their times when the gates open, but at a distance of approximately 30 metres in front of the gates – the flying start time.

What impact does that have? According to the ratings expert TTR spoke to, you can add 2.5 to three seconds to those times to make them comparable to times set from a standing start.

“A flying start can add anything up to three seconds, depending on how far the barrier is behind the beam. If a horse runs 1:06 in Japan (or America), it’s probably about 1:08.5 here depending on the track,” he said.

It’s all about standardising the conditions to make times comparable.

“Horses generally can't run quicker than 12.8 seconds for the first furlong from a standing start, then you compare that to what times they run with a flying start and you get around 2.5 to three second advantage.

“Flying start times are comparable, but not the raw time. You have to add a constant to make the adjusted time. If Ka Ying Rising went to Japan, he’d probably run about 1:03.5.”

And this difference between the time taken from a standing start against the time set while the horse is already at full gallop is most obvious when looking at sectional data.

In Sunday’s race, Ka Ying Rising’s fastest section was from the 400 metres to the 200 metre mark which he covered in 10.44 seconds. The fastest furlong ever recorded was for Black Caviar (Bel Esprit) in her 2012 G1 Lightning Stakes win, where she covered the 600 metre to 400 metre furlong in 9.98 seconds.

Horses measure faster furlongs when they are already up to speed, hence why the flying start measurement system already results in faster raw times.

So how do you standardise times? Waterhouse says it comes back to raw data.

“We measure 20 years of times at each track. We look at each race, the surface, what the class of the race was, and then we determine what time they should run,” Waterhouse said. Because each track is measured separately, Waterhouse’s data team don’t care about the track layout when getting a par time for each track.

“We only look at what they’ve done there for 20 years and we have a number that's really reliable. Hong Kong is easy because they race every week over similar distances, so there’s plenty of data.”

The professional punter we spoke to agreed, saying it all comes back to finding the par time for each track, then adjusting the raw times.

“You can compare across tracks and across history, but you have to profile each track to find the par time by class first. Then you adjust the raw time to get an adjusted comparable time.”

So how good is Ka Ying Rising?

Looking at the fastest 1200 metre times set across the world in the last decade, and adjusting for flying starts using 2.5 seconds as a benchmark, being the lower end of the 2.5-3 seconds estimated, his time set on Sunday stands far above the rest.

Table: Top ten fastest 1200m times globally in last 10 years

For an Australian context, the Randwick 1200 metre was set by Yes Yes Yes in 2019 at 1:07.32, while at Flemington Iglesia, the sire of Champion Sire Written Tycoon, holds the 1200 metre record at 1:07.16. The fastest in Queensland was 1:07.67 set by Champagne Cuddles (Not A Single Doubt) at the Gold Coast in 2018.

These standing start times were blown out of the water by Ka Ying Rising on Sunday night.

“It must also be said that the times tell you how bad a horse isn't, rather than how good it is. When a horse runs a time, that’s evidence that it’s no worse than that," Waterhouse said.

“But there's nothing to say it can't be better than that. And my suspicion is Ka Ying Rising could actually do better than that. To my way of thinking, it's the start of the story rather than the end of the story.”

Getting better with time

Ka Ying Rising has broken the Sha Tin record for 1200 metres on five occasions. On Sunday, the track at Sha Tin was running faster than usual, with two class records also broken on the day.

Pierre Ng-trained Good Fortune (NZ) (Darci Brahma {NZ}) lowered the 1200 metre Class 5 record to 1:08.59s for jockey Nichola Yeun and Danny Shum-trained General Smart (Shamus Award) clocked 1:33.91 for the mile to break the Class 5 record for that distance.

Table: Sha Tin 1200m track record over time

“I would equate Ka Ying Rising to Don Bradman. Bradman had a test score cricket average of 99.94 and the next best is about 60,” the pro punter said.

Bradman achieved his batting average over 80 innings, while the Australian Adam Voges is second of all time with 61.87 off 31 innings and his career was cut short due to concussion.

“He's probably six standard deviations above the mean. Ka Ying Rising is so far above the other horses in the population that you can’t really measure by how far. I have him a rating of 91 for that run, and I think I gave Black Caviar 86, but she, like him, was unextended.”

What does this mean for the G1 The Everest? If Ka Ying Rising can repeat the same performance, the professional punter TTR spoke to thinks he’ll win by six lengths.

“Ka Ying Rising will start one to 25 in The Everest. I think he has a mortgage over The Everest. Obviously, he's an outstanding horse. If there was another horse in the race to pressure him, who's to say he wouldn't find two more lengths,” Waterhouse said.

Ultimately, a champion horse transcends the data. There simply are too few of them at this level to be able to accurately compare them to each other.

But time doesn't lie and Ka Ying Rising is now the fastest 1200 metre horse ever from a standing start.