Cover image courtesy of Georgia Young Photography
The G1 Makybe Diva Stakes has been run and won, with a few hearts shattered along the way. It wasn't the only piece of exciting racing on Saturday though, with the 3-year-olds leaving plenty exciting hints of more to come.
A one-horse race
A slow tempo played right into the hands of Sheza Alibi (Saxon Warrior {Jpn}) in Saturday’s G1 Makybe Diva Stakes at Flemington.
A northerly breeze swept across headquarters, making cover around the long, sweeping turn into the straight an advantage. It also helped to suck the pace out of several races.
The market said it was a two-horse race between Sheza Alibi and Sir Delius (GB) (Frankel {GB}). Once that tempo was established, however, it became a one-horse race.
Sheza Alibi landed on the back of Sir Delius, getting cover from the wind around the bend, and by the 600-metre mark it was game over. Nothing more than times and margins, please.
The Group 1 feature was run seven lengths below standard through the first 1000 metres. Sheza Alibi's overall time was a touch slower than average for the Makybe Diva, but her last 600 metres was electric; more than six lengths above Group 1 standard.
A proper filly
In my opinion, though, the win of the day at Flemington belonged to Satono Glow (NZ) (Satono Aladdin {Jpn}) in the G3 Cap D’Antibes Stakes over 1100 metres.
She ran 0.20s faster than Paradoxium (Extreme Choice) did in the following race for the boys - and did it despite conceding them a hefty six-length head start through the first section. Her last 600 metres was more than eight lengths above standard. This was the win of a proper filly.
I suspect that her connections might test her at 1200 metres down the straight in the G2 Danehill Stakes, with a view to taking aim at the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes if all goes well.
I don’t want to knock Paradoxium, but the Melbourne 3-year-old boys haven’t looked much chop from what we have seen so far this spring. He was able to win in dominant fashion, but did so posting moderate times.
Some serious speed
In stark contrast to the Melbourne colts' performances was the G2 Run To The Rose at Rosehill, won by Warwoven (Sword Of State).
The overall time was only a fraction better than average, but the late splits suggest there was plenty more in the tank from this group of colts.
They came home in 21.96s for the last 400 metres and 11.21s for the final 200 metres, making that last 400 metres close to six lengths above standard.
That is seriously fast.
Warwoven got the favours, but he has still run time. Anyone dismissing the win because of the run he enjoyed could be treading on dangerous ground.
Runner-up St Gotthard (Snitzel) was solid first-up, albeit the race didn’t really test him from a fitness point of view.
Third-placed Under Focus (Too Darn Hot {GB}) didn’t get the pace up front he needed, but the real eye-catching performance for me was Tron Bolt (Toronado {Ire}). Taken back from a wide gate, he ripped out the fastest last 200 metres of the meeting. He could take a huge leap in his rating when he lines up in the G1 Golden Rose Stakes.
High pressure no stress for Shockletz
Back in Melbourne, we ask the question: can Shockletz (NZ) emulate her father Shocking and win the G1 Melbourne Cup?
It's a high bar to clear, but her victory in the G3 Archer Stakes - which guarantees her a spot in the big one on the first Tuesday in November - proved she can absorb serious pressure.
Even if you remove tearaway leader Chief Little Rock (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) from the calculations, Litzdeel (Dundeel {NZ}), and Taramansour (Ire) (Dansili {GB}) went through the first 2000 metres around eight lengths above standard.
Litzdeel was only third-up and having her first run beyond 2000 metres this preparation, so perhaps she can be forgiven for her performance.
Shockletz, meanwhile, has been racing throughout winter - a pattern we’ve seen with some recent Cup heroes - and she relished the pressure before finishing strongly.
The knock? Her final 200 metres suggested that there wasn’t much left to give. To be genuinely competitive in a Melbourne Cup, they probably need to find another two or three lengths on how she finished.
Pondalowie impressive in Let's Elope
Pondalowie (Deep Field) is a hard horse to catch. She caused a massive upset at $51 in the G2 Let’s Elope Stakes, but the reason she is difficult to catch is because what she needs to produce her best is so specific: a slow tempo over 1400 metres.
She has the turn of foot to win 1000-metre races, but she takes 400 to 600 metres to find her rhythm. Over the shorter trips, by the time she gets comfortable the leaders can already have established a 10 to 12-length margin approaching the final 600 metres. It’s simply too much.
Put genuine pace into almost any race and she can struggle, but give her a slowly-run 1400 metrs where she can settle eight to 10 lengths off them and suddenly it works. She gets time to find her rhythm - and then possesses the speed of a 1000-metre horse to overhaul them.
That’s her race shape.
Skyhook had Theo Marks on a platter
We whip back up to Sydney to finish with Skyhook (Written Tycoon), winner of the G2 Theo Marks Stakes.
He was the best-backed runner of the day at Rosehill and landed fourth in a below-average tempo. From there, they pretty much handed him the race.
I wouldn’t expect him to head to the G1 Epsom Handicap off of that performance. It is more likely that they keep him fresh and target the back end of the carnival, although the trainers have announced he will likely press on to the G1 Golden Eagle in October.
A look ahead
Now, we get to see Autumn Glow (The Autumn Sun) in the G2 7 Stakes at Randwick this weekend. Nothing explains the importance of distance and race shape in thoroughbred racing better than what we’ve seen from three of our best horses.
Autumn Glow | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
Sir Delius beat Autumn Glow.
Then Autumn Glow beat Sheza Alibi.
Then Sheza Alibi beat Sir Delius.
To the untrained punter, it probably looks like a head-scratcher.
It isn’t.
Those three races ranged from 1400 metres to 2000 metres, while the tempos ranged from extremely slow to extremely fast. Same horses. Different distances. Different race shapes. Different results.
That’s racing. Good punting.
