Cover image courtesy of Ashlea Brennan
The first official 2-year-old trials always bring with them an aura of excitement for the season of juvenile racing ahead, but increasingly in recent years, they have also brought questions about an apparent contraction in the 2-year-old ranks making it to the track.
Three quarters of the way through the 2024/25 season, Australia was well behind the previous year’s juvenile numbers. Around 1000 two-year-olds still needed to make their debut in the final three months just to close the gap.
They very nearly did. By the end of July 2025, 2359 juveniles had made their first start — only five fewer than the previous season.
Monday’s first official trials at Kensington raise a broader question: what do they tell us about the changing nature of the juveniles being asked to start early?
Running the numbers
Last season, 18% of the foal crop ran as 2-year-olds, which is a dip - but not as dramatic as has otherwise been thought. In the last 10 years, that fraction peaked at 23% in the 2018/19 season, where 2868 had their first start as juveniles.
| 2025/26 | 2172 | 11850 | 18% | 2023 |
| 2024/25 | 2359 | 13320 | 18% | 2022 |
| 2023/24 | 2364 | 12854 | 18% | 2021 |
| 2022/23 | 2401 | 12891 | 19% | 2020 |
| 2021/22 | 2760 | 13019 | 21% | 2019 |
| 2020/21 | 2855 | 13075 | 22% | 2018 |
| 2019/20 | 2844 | 13069 | 22% | 2017 |
| 2018/19 | 2868 | 12585 | 23% | 2016 |
| 2017/18 | 2784 | 12992 | 21% | 2015 |
| 2016/17 | 2802 | 13800 | 20% | 2014 |
Table: Number of 2-year-old runners in Australia across the last 10 seasons
The shrinking foal crop changes the picture. Around 20% of the crop raced as 2-year-olds in both 2005/06 and 2016/17. So even if the raw number of juvenile starters looks familiar today, they may now represent a considerably larger share of the horses available.
Starter numbers are easier to track than trial numbers. Since 2020, the size of Sydney’s first metropolitan 2-year-old trials has moved around, but Monday’s turnout is similar to the past two years and to 2021.
The biggest field came in 2023, with 71 juveniles trialling, yet that season still produced the lowest share of pre-Christmas runners across the period.
| 2025 | 58 | 23 | 39.7% |
| 2024 | 57 | 24 | 42.1% |
| 2023 | 71 | 26 | 36.6% |
| 2022 | 61 | 31 | 50.8% |
| 2021 | 54 | 28 | 51.9% |
| 2020 | 64 | 31 | 48.4% |
Table: September triallers who went on to run before Christmas
The trial mornings used to be bigger. While Monday’s nine heats contain 57 runners, Peter Snowden remembers when there were two to three times those numbers.
“Going back 20 years, there would be 30 or 40 heats,” he recalled. “Now there’s rarely 10, but that isn’t a bad thing in my opinion.”
Astute Bloodstock’s Louis Le Metayer has noticed a slow shift across both trainers and owners away from overvaluing the early trials.
Louis Le Metayer | Image courtesy of Astute Bloodstock
“People are starting to realise that horses are very immature at this age, and there's more to be gained by being patient these days, because the real prize money comes at three years old and beyond,” he said.
“There's more to be gained by being patient these days, because the real prize money comes at three years old and beyond.” - Louis Le Metayar
“We have 100 individual $1 million races in Australia, and only seven of them are for 2-year-olds. A study published recently showed that less than 10% of the entire crop had raced by Slipper Day.”
As mentioned above, approximately only 10% of the 2024/25 2-year-old cohort had started by the beginning of May last year. The remaining 8% would debut in the season’s final three months.
“Given horses don't fully mature until they're three and a half to four years old, the smart operators are less likely to follow the old trends blindly,” Le Metayer added.
“We do a lot of research here and in the last 30 years, the only top Australian stallion I can think of who didn't train on to win a big race at three was Sebring. But he was clearly an outstanding horse.
“Given horses don't fully mature until they're three and a half to four years old, the smart operators are less likely to follow the old trends blindly.” - Louis Le Metayer
“Apart from exceptions like Sebring, I think breeders should focus on breeding from top 3-year-olds. The best stallions are often the best 3-year-olds, plain and simple. The best 3-year-old has to compete against the full crop, not the 10% that raced at two.”
Less pressure, better long-term results
Despite having had a lot of success with his 2-year-olds, including Kensington debutante Memo and her multiple juvenile stakes-winning father Capitalist, Snowden is happy to admit there has been a shift in his dynamic.
“A few years ago, I would have had a lot of 2-year-olds, over 100, and with that number, you just have to keep moving, but two things have led to a change in direction,” he said. “Most importantly for me is recognising there's a lot of pressure on young horses, and quite often you do more harm than good. It's as simple as that.”
“There's a lot of pressure on young horses, and quite often you do more harm than good. It's as simple as that.” - Peter Snowden
Snowden understands the importance of a swift return on investment - or, at least, the feeling that you might get that - but he has found that placing early results above a horse’s development is only detrimental. On top of that, there just aren't a lot of results to be had.
“The programming has also driven a change,” he said. “Once the Breeders’ Plate and the Gimcrack are over with, there’s a month until the next big race, the $1 million Golden Gift. That’s a long time to wait, and it feels pointless to roll up for 40 to 50 2-year-olds to these early trials when there’s only really two winners coming out of the first month.”
Peter Snowden | Image courtesy of Peter Snowden
In the career of a 2-year-old, a month is a long stretch of time, and Snowden would rather send out only the juveniles that are ready, as opposed to trying to aim a larger contingent at those early races. In 2026, he will have four starters at the trials.
“And most of them will go out after the Gimcrack and Breeders’ Plate anyway, so it isn’t like they will be waiting around for the Golden Gift,” Snowden said.
“That forces your hand to not rush them, along with the mindset change. It is much better to get them more preps doing less intense work than hammer them early to get to one race where first place prize money won’t guarantee you a spot in the Slipper.”
Later in the spring into the summer, the juvenile racing becomes much more regular and better value. Last week, Magic Millions announced the boosting of prize money across seven juvenile races in Queensland’s summer to a total of $1.3 million, all before the R. Listed Magic Millions 2YO Classic. The vast majority of the season’s richest racing then comes in the autumn.
Unit Five winning the 2026 R. Listed Magic Millions 2YO Classic | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
The horses that Snowden will debut on Monday are the ones who are ready, not just the ones whose owners are desperate for a bit of black-type.
“These (trial horses) are the four that stood out for me out of around 50 to go through.” - Peter Snowden
“They’re all Magic Millions horses, they have all been in and out of the stable four or five times,” he said. “They're well-conditioned, they're well-prepared, they have got good muscle definition on them, and these are the four that stood out for me out of around 50 to go through.”
An early benchmark
Even though it is becoming less of an aim to get to these early heats, they have historically turned out to be remarkably good predictors of success compared to the main population.
The 2025 trials turned out the likes of Shiki (Too Darn Hot {GB}), Paradoxium (Extreme Choice), Incognito (Stay Inside), and Revengeance (Hellbent), all of whom won stakes or feature races before Christmas. While only 23 of the cohort started before Christmas, 34.8% of them to perform at fourth or better at stakes level before Christmas.
While there are still only four stakes winners from that cohort, this total hit rate of 6.9% stakes winners compares pretty favourably to the whole crop. There were 63 individual juvenile stakes winners in Australia last season, with a strike rate of 2.9% stakes winners to runners.
| 2025 | 58 | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | 8 | 34.8% |
| 2024 | 57 | 24 | 5 | 20.8% | 10 | 41.7% |
| 2023 | 71 | 26 | 3 | 11.5% | 11 | 42.3% |
| 2022 | 61 | 31 | 5 | 16.1% | 13 | 41.9% |
| 2021 | 54 | 28 | 2 | 7.1% | 8 | 28.6% |
| 2020 | 64 | 31 | 1 | 3.2% | 7 | 22.6% |
Table: Pre-Christmas stakes performances of first September triallers
The best season for these statistics to date has been the 2024 cohort; from 57 triallers, 24 ran before Christmas to produce five stakes winners and a further five stakes performers.
That cohort - which featured the likes of Beiwacht (Bivouac), who finished last in his heat behind future Group 2 winner Hidden Motive (Capitalist), and multimillionaire O’Ole (Ole Kirk) - has churned out a total of 13 individual stakes winners to date, with a strike rate of 22.8%. With that crop only just turning four, there could well be more to come.
Beiwacht | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
“It has been evident for a long time that some of our best 2-year-olds appear in those first trials every year,” said Coolmore Stud’s Colm Santry.
“There is always at least one good colt and one good filly to come out of those trials, and it will no doubt be the same this year. Some of them will go on to run in the Gimcrack and the Breeders’ Plate, but there will be several others who turn up later in the year as well.”
“It has been evident for a long time that some of our best 2-year-olds appear in those first trials every year.” - Colm Santry
Coolmore has had its fair share of talent emerge from the first trials, including stallions Pierro and Vancouver, and amongst the broodmare band, Group 1-winning Coolangatta (Written Tycoon), $3.5 million G3 Gimcrack Stakes winner Platinum Jubilee (Zoustar), and homebred multiple juvenile stakeswinner Learning To Fly (Justify {USA}).
Learning To Fly’s cohort also turned out G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes winner Ozzmosis and Don Corleone, while the year after saw the first public appearances of Lady Of Camelot (Written Tycoon), Manaal (Tassort), Espionage, Bosustow (Blue Point {Ire}), and Bodyguard.
Learning To Fly | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
What this most likely demonstrates is what Snowden and trainers like him are seeing in their own stock. If they are mature, sound, and precocious, they can by and large perform very well. But there is no point pushing a horse to hit those goals if they aren’t quite ready.
Longevity in mind
Despite Australia’s love of precocity, we race a far smaller portion of our foal crop as 2-year-olds than other countries. In 2025, 61% of British 2-year-olds had at least one start, while in Japan, that share rose to 67%.
The difference is in the programming, particularly in Japan where the emphasis is placed on getting a start over distance late in the season to set horses up for their Classic years.
| Japan | 7753 | 5180 | 67% |
| Great Britain | 4510 | 2733 | 61% |
| USA | 18500 | 6196 | 33% |
| France | 5091 | 1451 | 29% |
| Ireland | 9569 | 941 | 10% |
Table: International juvenile runners in 2025
Le Metayer draws on observations of racing made across the world, and he is of the opinion that pre-Christmas racing is ultimately unnecessary.
“Having worked for big two-year-old stables in the past, I'm fundamentally against pre-Christmas 2-year-old racing,” he said. “I think horses are way too young, too immature, and the attrition rate is extremely high. I'd like to see a 2-year-old program that builds into the season, where the better races come later on.
“Dr Percy Sykes, one of the greatest vets of all time, used to compare a racehorse's racing life to a single-use battery, and said their consumption as a 2-year-old was twice as high as their normal rate.”
“Dr Percy Sykes used to compare a racehorse's racing life to a single-use battery, and said their consumption as a 2-year-old was twice as high as their normal rate.” - Louis Le Metayer
Le Metayer is not against juvenile racing altogether, but he points out that the developmental differences between a juvenile in October and the same horse in May is huge.
Dr Percy Sykes | Image courtesy of Arrowfield Stud
“That eight-month gap represents a huge leap in physical and mental maturity, nearly 30% of a horse's entire lifespan at that stage,” he said. “I think we should be setting up a 2-year-old program with welfare and longevity in mind.”
Snowden has seen the shift in mindset with the majority of his owners as well.
“They are generally on the same page,” he said. “A small number might find it hard to understand, but the majority of them are happy to be patient.”
Catering to the market
The evidence suggests that the percentage of 2-year-olds making it to the track each year is not likely to shrink away to nothing, and while that actual number of individuals may shrink, there is no shortage yet for horses to be tested for their precocity.
As Aaron Bott of Botty’s Bloodstock points out, the major yearling sales are not yet having to shrink their catalogues.
“Even though the foal crop has shrunk a lot over the past 20 years, there are still some 6000 yearlings going through the ring each year,” he said.
“The sales companies are still turning away people from their select sales. As long as we have the numbers to fill those sales spots, and fill the appetite of the market, we aren’t going to see any serious effects on fields and starters.”
“As long as we have the numbers to fill those sales spots, and fill the appetite of the market, we aren’t going to see any serious effects on fields and starters.” - Aaron Bott
The 2-year-old breeze-up market has been increasing in popularity in recent years, and entered horses can be both bought specifically for the sale and have skipped an earlier sale altogether.
Aaron Bott | Image courtesy of Magic Millions
Le Metayer said that what these sales now need to focus on is the holistic education of the horse, as opposed to running a time, in order to create an animal that is properly set up to target racing in its juvenile season.
“There's a fundamental difference between how a horse is trained for a 2-year-old sale and how it's trained in a leading stable,” he said.
“There's a fundamental difference between how a horse is trained for a 2-year-old sale and how it's trained in a leading stable.” - Louis Le Metayer
“Two-year-olds should be taught how to load in the gates, stand in the gates, jump out of the gates, swim in the pool, canter in a tight bunch, and stand in the tie-up stalls for extended periods, just as they will at the races, so a new buyer can purchase a bombproof, well-educated horse ready to increase its workload, rather than one that needs a spell because it's already sore - which happens a lot.”
The same fact rings true; a rushed horse who is prepared to run as a 2-year-old, particularly early in the season, cannot be forced into the mould of a winner. While the early trials offer us a glimpse of some of our early stars, they have to be 100% ready to be there.
