Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
A perfect race shape for Angel Capital (Harry Angel {Ire}) landed a valuable Group 1 win, while Bangkok Hottie (Too Darn Hot {GB}) won the fastest G3 Tea Rose Stakes in more than a decade.
Angel Capital gets his big moment
Angel Capital winning Saturday’s G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes at Caulfield is a perfect example of what happens when a horse finally gets the right race shape.
At 1400 metres, the tempo was remarkably even. They didn’t go hard early and collapse late, nor did they crawl through the first half and turn it into a sprint home. They simply rolled along at a consistent speed. This allowed Angel Capital to settle around two and half lengths closer in the run than he did in the same race last year when charging home for an unlucky fourth.
For a horse with his racing pattern, that two and a half lengths is enormous. Instead of giving away a huge start and being asked to produce something extraordinary in the final 400 metres, he was close enough to use his turn of foot where it actually mattered.
Ultimately, that proved the difference.
If the field goes too quickly early, Angel Capital gets dragged too far off them. He settles further back, loses touch with the horses ahead of him and is left with too much ground to make up. Even if the leaders start tiring late, there’s only so much ground a horse can recover before the winning post arrives.
But the opposite extreme doesn't suit him either. If they go too slowly early, he might travel comfortably, but the horses in front of him have conserved just as much energy. They can accelerate with him when the sprint goes on, meaning they simply don't slow down enough for him to reel them in.
Angel Capital winning the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes | Image courtesy of The Image Is Everything
What Angel Capital needs is the sweet spot in between - an even tempo to keep him within striking distance, but enough sustained pressure so that the horses ahead can't simply sprint home.
On Saturday, that's exactly what he got.
And suddenly he looked like the horse punters had been paying to see all along.
The race rated two and a half lengths faster than average and came off an even tempo, which generally bodes well for the form going forward.
It's a not reason to drop off Tom Kitten (Harry Angel {Ire}) or Sabaj (Manhattan Rain). Both were sectionally excellent and, in my opinion, the formguide isn’t a true reflection of how well they’re actually going. There are better performances buried in those recent runs than the finishing positions suggest.
Point Barrow superior on top of the ground
Point Barrow (Blue Point {Ire}) was super when winning the G2 How Now Stakes over 1200 metres at Caulfield.
She ran more than three lengths inside standard time off an even tempo, so there was plenty of substance to the performance. While Angel Capital produced the fastest last 600 metres of the entire meeting, Point Barrow recorded the eighth-fastest closing 400 metres of the day.
She is clearly a different horse when she gets on top of the ground and Saturday was another reminder of that. On a bone-dry track she can sustain a much better speed and really let down.
The only query is where the performance sits at the very top level. As good as the win was, the overall rating she produced is probably still a touch below what I would consider genuine Group 1 level. She may need to find another length or two when she meets the absolute top-liners.
Intrigue in the Guineas preludes
The Guineas preludes is where things get really interesting. Firstly, there probably isn’t a huge amount of difference between the two races, although I’d have the boys slightly ahead of the girls.
Blind Raise (NZ) (Ace High), winner of the G3 Caulfield Guineas Prelude, was more than half a second faster overall than G2 Thousand Guineas Prelude winnner Icelady (Maurice {Jpn}), while their final 200-metre splits were almost identical. More importantly, there really wasn’t any section of the respective races where the fillies were travelling faster than the colts.
So, on the clock at least, you’d have to say advantage colts.
But things get a lot murkier when we stop comparing the Melbourne races with each other and start comparing them with what the Sydney fillies are doing - because at the moment, I think the Melbourne fillies look miles behind the Sydney fillies.
Bangkok Hottie ran 1:21.40s for the 1400 metres in the G2 Tea Rose Stakes. To put that into some context, here are the winning times from the previous five Tea Rose Stakes run on a Good 4:
Miss Fabulass (Frankel {GB}) - 1:22.93s
Dame Giselle (I Am Invincible) - 1:22.26s
Tiz Invincible (I Am Invincible) - 1:22.82s
Autumn Glow (The Autumn Sun) - 1:22.94s
Apocalyptic (Extreme Choice) - 1:23.26s
That immediately tells you that Bangkok Hottie ran serious time.
But this is also a perfect example of why we study sectionals rather than simply looking at overall race times.
Take Autumn Glow. She won her Tea Rose in 1:22.94s, so if you looked only at the overall time, her performance wouldn't jump off the page compared with the other winners on that list.
But she came home in 33.3s for her final 600 metres - around one full second faster than anything else on the list.
That changes the interpretation completely.
Autumn Glow didn't run 1:22.94s because that was the limit of what she was capable of running. She ran that time because of the shape of the race. She wasn't required to expend anywhere near as much energy early, leaving her with an enormous amount in reserve for the final 600 metres.
Give her a stronger tempo and she almost certainly doesn't come home in 33.3s - but her overall time becomes significantly faster.
That's why race shape matters.
Bangkok Hottie got the stronger tempo and she ran the time, and 1:21.40s is a proper 1400-metre performance.
But I also loved the run of Striking Alibi (Hanseatic). She was on trial at 1400 metres and this wasn't some sit-and-sprint where she could conserve energy and dash home. This was a properly run 1400-metres test, and she handled it beautifully.
Her final 200-metre split of 11.64s was matched by Global Goal (Pinatubo {Ire}), and those are the two I want to be following into the G1 Flight Stakes. In my opinion, one of those two will be winning it.
When you line the Melbourne fillies up against what we have seen in Sydney, there looks to be somewhere around two to three lengths between them at the moment. That's a significant gap at this level.
What can we learn from Autumn Glow's run?
Speaking of Autumn Glow, she did something different in Saturday's G2 Seven Sunrise Stakes; she led for the first time in her career.
Admittedly, she wasn't tested.
Her first 1000 metres was close to five lengths below standard, so she was allowed to control the race without having to burn much petrol. She then came home nicely, with her final 400 metres around three and a half above standard.
It wasn't a performance where we learnt much more about her ceiling because the race simply wasn't run in a way that required her to show it.
But perhaps we learnt something from what happened afterwards.
It appears to have been enough for the Sheza Alibi (Saxon Warrior {Jpn}) camp to decide they don't particularly fancy another clash.
The pair had seemingly been heading towards Round 2 in the G1 King Charles III Stakes, but the Melbourne mare will now head to the G1 Might And Power Stakes instead - a race worth around five times less.
Make of that what you will.
