38.9% and rising: the trainer making a mockery of strike rates

Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything

Four runners, four winners. Tom Dabernig could hardly have asked for a better weekend, with a Group 2 double at Caulfield on Saturday followed by another two winners at Horsham on Sunday.

Cavalry Girl (Bivouac) and Shadhavar (Pride Of Dubai) delivered the Caulfield double for Prime Thoroughbreds, while Strength Within (Stay Inside) and Bazzar (Trapeze Artist) completed the clean sweep at Horsham.

For a relatively small stable based at Warrnambool, the results are extraordinary. Dabernig has trained seven winners from just 18 Melbourne runners this season, giving him a strike rate of 38.9%.

“We are reasonably small in the scheme of things and for a country-based stable, it was a good weekend,” Dabernig said.

“The Group double was great, and both for Prime Thoroughbreds. We were hopeful that Cavalry Girl and Shadhavar would measure up in the spring.”

“Tom has done a fantastic job for us and for their owners,” Prime Thoroughbreds’ Joe O’Neill said.

“It's good to have runners in Melbourne during the spring. It's one of the world's great carnivals. Coincidentally, Craig rode a winner for me at Flemington 20 years ago on Cup Day, on Unabated, and Tom was the foreman for Lindsay Park at the time.”

Group 1 ambitions for Caulfield winners

Cavalry Girl has been one of the stable’s most consistent performers, winning five of her eight starts this preparation, with three seconds. Her G2 Caulfield Sprint victory followed a runner-up finish to My Gladiola (I Am Invincible) in the G1 AJ Moir Stakes.

Dabernig believes keeping the mare racing through the winter has worked in her favour.

“I thought it might be our advantage to come out of winter fit and get a result. With each of her wins, she just keeps growing in confidence and keeps improving to the next level,” he said.

“She’s a great little horse. She doesn’t have any physical issues that you’re needing a spell for. She’s very sound and breathes well and everything.”

Cavalry Girl will head to the Century Stakes on Melbourne Cup Day before being spelled and prepared for the G1 Lightning Stakes in the autumn.

“Cavalry Girl has come to a new level. She’s a very good mare, and she’s bombproof,” O’Neill said.

“Her sectionals from Saturday were extraordinary. She ran home the last 600 metres in 33.”

Stablemate Shadhavar is also expected to race again on Melbourne Cup Day, with the G3 Hong Kong Jockey Club Sprint her likely target. The Pride Of Dubai mare has won twice at stakes level this preparation, adding Saturday’s G2 Tristarc Stakes to her Listed Regal Roller Stakes victory.

“Have a look at Shadhavar’s galloping action. She’s just a powerhouse,” O’Neill said.

A partnership built on results

The relationship between O’Neill and Dabernig goes back a long time, and there’s a lot of mutual respect there. When Tom branched out on his own in 2021, O’Neill was one of the first to send him a horse.

“We've been together for a long time, and I said to him, if you ever go out on your own, I'll support you, and when he went out on his own, I gave him a horse the next day,” O’Neill said.

“I've got enormous respect for him as a trainer and a person and his wife, Cassie, and the whole family are very good people, but he's an outstanding trainer. His results are quite extraordinary. Four or five years ago he only had five horses and now look at the Metro premiership in Victoria, Tom’s strike rate is 38.9% winners to runners for this season. A lot of that is with my horses.”

This season, Dabernig sits in sixth-equal on the Melbourne Trainer’s Premiership with seven city wins from 18 runners (38.9%). Ciaron Maher is the current leader with 35 wins from 250 runners (14%).

“No one's in the same ballpark. He's a very good horseman. Exceptional horseman. He's patient. He knows what he's doing. He's got a very good team around him. The staff don't leave him,” O’Neill said.

Much of the success comes from a strong collaboration between trainer and syndicator.

“Joe has got a very good understanding of the back-of-office stuff. He could see that we worked quite well together with communication and placement, so every year when he went to the sales, he would allocate a couple to us and now he’s got 15 here at the stable,” Dabernig said.

“A lot of thought goes into each horse. He spells them at Musk Creek Farm on the peninsula and then they get broken in by Shaun Nolen, who is Luke Nolen the jockey's brother, and he does a great job.”

Buying yearlings in the middle of the market

Cavalry Girl was a $110,000 purchase from Vinery Stud at the Inglis Classic Yearling Sale. Shadhavar cost $85,000 at the Magic Millions Adelaide Yearling Sale from The Chase’s draft. And it’s this part of the market that O’Neill likes to buy in.

“A lot of our success comes down to Joe’s selection process, sourcing the right horses and they're always bought at a reasonable price,” Dabernig said.

O’Neill keeps all the statistics for his whole team, with horses spread across several stables in NSW and Victoria including Kris Lees, John Thompson, Stuart Gandy and Patrick Payne.

“I’ve got 23 runners in my team at the moment for 19 winners and the average cost was $104,000. It’s a good part of the market to target,” O’Neill said.

“Since we started in 1997, Bill Mitchell and I have worked together, and now (Bill’s son) James works for Bill and the three of us work closely together. I’ve got Greg Nash as my vet. We never buy if he says not to, he’s a very good judge. James is looking at yearlings and foals in the Hunter today, so we have the advantage of looking at them for a long time, not just at the sales.

“I put a lot of effort into first season sires. I only buy one or two by first season sires each year, but we go looking for them.”

Why Dabernig chose Warrnambool

When Tom Dabernig established his own stable in 2021, he made a deliberate decision to base himself at Warrnambool, trading the convenience of Melbourne’s training centres for access to the beach and the cold waters of the Southern Ocean.

“We chose to come to Warrnambool because we thought it was the best place for the horses and I’d always liked the idea of incorporating the beach into the training,” Dabernig said.

“Whilst it’s a little bit further away from the metro tracks, we feel that the benefit of having the horses here for their recovery and preparation outweighs the logistics of where we are.”

The three-hour journey home from Melbourne is followed by a trip to the beach, where Dabernig believes the cold water and relaxed environment help horses recover.

“Here, you have to travel home for three hours, but the next day they’re walking in the cold water at the beach, and I find they eat better. It’s like when you swim yourself in the ocean, it stimulates your appetite.”

Dabernig also uses the beach for cantering, particularly with horses that benefit from working away from the conventional racetrack environment.

“The other thing is they really relax at the beach. When you have a horse on a track, they often get keen and they pull, but when they’re at the beach, those horses can actually work in company and they just dawdle along off the bit.

“If a horse is relaxed in its work, they’re not burning all that nervous energy and like Cavalry Girl, they seem to stay up for longer.”

Dabernig believes the combination of cold water, straight-line exercise and a more relaxed environment has contributed to his stable’s success.

“There are so many benefits but it’s hard to gauge which one is the key. It’s probably a combination.”

Four from four

Dabernig completed his perfect weekend at Horsham on Sunday, with 3-year-old filly Strength Within (Stay Inside) breaking her maiden at her second start and 4-year-old gelding Bazzar (Trapeze Artist) recording his second career victory.

Strength Within, an $80,000 Inglis Premier purchase, is likely to progress through the benchmark grades, with Dabernig eyeing suitable races at Geelong and Warrnambool during Cup week.

“She should keep improving. She’s got good natural speed,” Dabernig said.