Stark reality check for future race fields as covering numbers drop again

Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything

When Headley Grange’s (Exosphere) breeder Rob Manwaring accepted the Small Breeder Of The Year award at TBNSW’s annual awards day on Saturday, he referred to his kind as a “dying breed”. It was a comment that is quite starkly reflected in the figures.

With a few exceptions, the majority of commercial stallion operations spoken to by TTR are experiencing the same phenomenon; mare numbers are currently down between 10 and 20% compared to the same time in last year’s season.

"Even with a new stallion on the roster, we are down maybe 15% in comparison to last year," said one studmaster.

Some reported that there was little distinguishing between the performance or fee of a stallion, while those in their second, third, and fourth seasons face the greatest challenge.

"Bookings are noticeably down, especially with the younger, unproven horses on our roster," said another.

"People are not willing to take risks, even more now than ever."

That becomes most poignant with the breeder with one or two mares, and those are the ones who seem to be sitting the season out.

But even established, top 10 stallions are filling their books slower than normal.

"It's not price dependent, it's not performance dependent. It's demand dependent and the demand is dropping off."

And it is no secret that this is not isolated to just this year.

In 2025, the numbers of mares covered domestically across the whole season fell by four figures for the third year in a row, with 15,583 mares visiting local stallions, down from 20,094 in 2021. While there will always be a small number reporting international covers, that number is too small to really influence the 22.5% contraction in the Australian broodmare population being served.

The end of season fertility levels remain the same across recent years, with 66% of mares producing live foals.

If nothing changes to lift covering figures in the next few weeks and the same rate of decline continues, Australia could very well be on track for a foal crop that drops below 10,000 in 2027.

Table: Annual decline in Australian foal crop, *estimated figures for 2027

The costs keep coming

It is no secret either that, while the top end of the market when it comes to sell those resulting foals remains quite strong, the margin of profit has a swift tail-off below.

When TTR spoke to breeder Duncan Grimley last year about reducing his broodmare herd from 60 to 15, he was very clear that the commercial reality of raising a yearling to sell played a big part in the decision.

Grimley estimated the average costs at $69,000 from conception to auction ring, without factoring in the service fee, and while there are ways to mitigate that number, it still puts a very large dent in any profit - and a similar dent in the desire to try again. At a median sale like the Inglis Classic Yearling Sale, where the 2026 average was $96,349, profit becomes negligible.

The overhead costs outside of a commercial operation are variable, but pressures continue to increase in all directions, particularly with the escalating prices of both fuel and feed impacting various parts of the industry. The industry does not operate in isolation either, and increasingly an activity like breeding needs to financially earn its place.

One studmaster noted that people are increasingly driven to breed commercially with the hopes of selling the offspring, with the intention of keeping them to race being a secondary consideration.

But this shift in the shape of racing and breeding ownership concentrates the pressures into different areas. The costs of acquiring a commercial mare only get higher, young stallions experience a greater rollercoaster in favourability, and everyone is beholden to the changing perceptions and whims of the market.

"The market is very selective about the top end, and there is a huge tail off," one stud noted. "People have had to almost give them away, so they are choosing not to breed their mares this year. I have had calls all year about finding new homes for mares."

The industry can’t look away from how this affects welfare, of both participants and the horses themselves. When trading value is diminished or a breeding horse is retired, we have to consider what happens to the horse next.

Further friction was added to the relationship between breeders and the industry’s regulator with the implementation of a lifetime racing embargo on late foal ownership declarations, threatening to snuff out a horse’s intended career path or sale. One Spirit Of Boom filly sold at the beginning of the year had the release of her sales proceeds held for an extended period until her eligibility could be resolved.

If they are unsuccessful in appealing the decision, breeders must now pay $2500 before November 13 to lift the embargo. At the busiest, most expensive time of the year, it is another sting to the breeders’ pocket.

Knock-on effects

Thus, we enter a vicious cycle, where some breeders see no way forward but out.

While several sales reported a rebound in their clearance rates, the feeling amongst many was that vendors were quicker to accept a lower price simply to not have to take the horse home. The costs, however, of arriving at that ring are still the same; horses are expected to be prepared to a certain standard, have their entry fees paid, and be radiographed and scoped.

The owner-breeder is not immune to this contraction either. The costs remain the same, without the end goal of the auction ring after two and a half years of planning. The horse still needs to be broken in, and then sent to a trainer - and the chances of a horse at least partially covering the costs are slimmer and slimmer.

"The costs are very obstructive," one studmaster said. "People are looking at them and deciding to just not participate in breeding."

While the top end continues to accrue record prize money levels, 94% of individual starters in the 2024/25 season did not earn six figures. To step it back even further, 83.7% did not even earn $10,000 in 12 months of racing. Prize money has risen across the board, but so have the costs of every stage.

It can’t be forgotten that prize money does not operate in a vacuum. A falling foal crop will have a measurable effect on field size in the coming years, and therefore a direct knock-on effect on wagering. Smaller field sizes attract smaller wagering pools, and with racing yet to unify on how to diversify the revenue streams that underpin the industry, we cannot afford to look away from this element of the cycle.

Those breeding at the lower end of the scale have had the highest rate of attrition, when looking at the use of stallions. While the total number of stallions standing in Australia has reduced by a third over the last decade, from 613 in 2017 to 384 reporting covers in 2025, the drop has been almost entirely at the bottom end.

Stallion numbers in New South Wales have dropped from 185 to 128, but the number standing at $22,000 (inc GST) or more has remained fairly constant around 45 stallions.

In Victoria, the roster has also dropped by a third, but the number standing at that figure or better has increased since 2021, from single digits to sitting around 16 stallions. In Queensland, the stallion numbers have dropped from 128 to 63 in the same period.

Which way forward?

The relationship between breeders, owners, and trainers is symbiotic, so to see one part of the system pared back so heavily should send alarm through the rest. The question remains on how to keep people in the game. This downwards trajectory is not a foregone conclusion.

Work has begun between Thoroughbred Breeders Australia and the AgriFutures Thoroughbred Horses program to explore all of the factors contributing to the foal crop’s decline and what that means for the future of Australian racing.

A positive reflected in the numbers of horses racing compared to the foal crop is our increasing efficiency in getting a horse to the races, but what we have no projection on is how large the foal crop needs to be to sustain the industry and how we can ensure we are able to replace and retain participants in it.

There has to be levers we can pull. The situation has been acknowledged by studs across the country, the next steps are to decide our course of action.