'The race of his life': Fulfilling lifelong dreams in the 2026 Melbourne Cup

Cover image courtesy of Lexus Australia

The final field is set. The barrier draw has been made. The veterinary inspections have been completed, and all that remains now is to count down until 3pm AEDT (2pm AEST) on Tuesday, when 24 horses will bid to win the race that stops the nation.

From that field, eight are visiting internationals, six were bred in Australia or New Zealand, and just one has won a G1 Melbourne Cup before. There is only one trophy, so who has the odds in their favour in 2026?

Table: 2026 G1 Melbourne Cup final field

Fortune favours the first four

Looking at historical precedent, the odds invariably stack in the favour of those who have performed well on the way in. From the last 30 editions of the race, 13 have won their lead-ups, including G1 Caulfield Cup winners Half Yours (St Jean {Ire}) in 2025, Without A Fight (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}) in 2023, Ethereal (NZ) (Rhythm {USA}) in 2001, and Might And Power (NZ) (Zabeel {NZ}) in 1997.

Other lead-up races to produce the Cup winner include the G3 Bart Cummings, the G3 Geelong Cup, the G2 Saab Quality/G3 Lexus Stakes (now the G3 Archer Stakes), and the G1 Cox Plate, the latter being the springboard for Makybe Diva’s (GB) (Desert King {Ire}) third victory in 2005.

And if you don’t win on the way in, finishing in the first three will do. From the last 30 runnings, 21 winners finished in the top three in their final pre-Cup start, and a further three finished fourth. This bodes well for the nine runners who finished top four in their last start, including G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup winner Juja Kibo (Ire) (Belardo {Ire}), G3 Geelong Cup winner Point Of Law (GB) (Frankel {GB}), and G3 Bendigo Cup winner So You Are (So You Think {NZ}).

Sam Clipperton, who spent the majority of 2025 out of the saddle, is looking forward to partnering Juja Kibo - one of seven runners for Ciaron Maher - in the Cup, having been aboard for his G2 Metropolitan Handicap win as well as the Moonee Valley victory.

When speaking to racing.com ahead of Tuesday, Clipperton was grateful for both his fiancee Georgia and the gelding’s ownership for continually backing him.

“They’re great people, Mick Johnston and Alice and everybody else involved in the horse, they’ve backed me all the way through his prep, and so has Ciaron (Maher),” he said. “When people like that stick with you, you approach it with your chest out and shoulders back and go out and execute as best you can.

“I think he’ll run the race of his life. Whether that’s good enough or not, we’ll see, but I still think he’s yet to peak.”

Ramsey Pastoral homebred So You Are heads to the Cup as the winner of his last four starts, all over distances between 2400 and 2600 metres. Breeder Stuart Ramsey is hopeful the gelding can make good on a promise he made his own father.

“My late father, he loved the Melbourne Cup,” Ramsey said. “He had on his butcher's shop calendar each year the last Melbourne Cup winner, and before he died, I said to him, ‘I'll breed one one day and race it and win it'.

“And he's been dead 40 years so I don't want to leave it too long!”

History in terms of pedigree is against the son of So You Think (NZ) when it comes to two miles, but Ramsey has the feeling that So You Are can outrun his page on Tuesday.

“He's got a very good action, and he gets down and he gets his head out, and what that means is, he's not cramping his airways and he can fill those big lungs,” he said. “And he's improving all the time.”

What history also tells us is that it is not impossible to win without pulling a placing. Knight’s Choice (Extreme Choice) was fifth, and well beaten by over five lengths, in the G3 Bendigo Cup before the 2024 Melbourne Cup, which likely contributed heavily to his long odds on the big day itself. Bendigo winner Sea King (GB) (Sea The Stars {Ire}) finished 14th in the grand final, carrying a kilo less than the victor.

Two years beforehand, Gold Trip (Fr) was ninth in the Cox Plate as his final lead-in to the Cup, and in 2008, Viewed (Scenic) was 11th in the G1 Mackinnon Stakes en route to his Cup victory.

This, in turn, gives hope to the rest of the field, particularly given nine of them finished 10th or worse in their most recent start. Seven Melbourne Cup runners came through the Caulfield Cup and four finished in double digits, but given the devastating loss of Ohope Wins (NZ) (Ocean Park {NZ}), the race may not provide a true guide to each runner’s form.

Sixth-placed Zahrann (Ire) (Night Of Thunder {Ire}), who won the G3 Naturalism Stakes earlier in the spring, carries the hopes of Queensland fruit magnate Noel Greenhalgh in this year’s Cup. Greenhalgh had a share in Gold Trip when the entire won, and believes the son of Night Of Thunder (Ire) has a live chance on Tuesday.

“In the Caulfield Cup, he should have gone close to winning,” Greenhalgh told racenet.com on Sunday. “He was a victim of interference because of the fall in the race and then he was blocked for a run.

“The question is whether he will run two miles, but he is in the Melbourne Cup with a light weight and he will get every chance.”

Middle Earth (GB) (Roaring Lion {USA}) also ran in the Caulfield Cup, finishing ninth, before an unplaced effort in the Cox Plate.

Historical precedent

The 24 runners of the 2026 Cup have all come through 10 races, and some come with more history attached to the great race than others.

From the past 30 editions, the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate reign supreme as the sources of Melbourne Cup heroes. Half Yours, Without A Fight, Vow And Declare (Declaration Of War {USA}), Delta Blues (Jpn) (Dance In The Dark {Jpn}), Ethereal, Jezabeel (NZ) (Zabeel {NZ}), and Might And Power all ran in the Caulfield Cup as their penultimate Cup start, and Makybe Diva ran in it twice ahead of her first two Cup wins.

Makybe Diva has been one of seven to come through the Cox Plate, alongside Gold Trip, Verry Elleegant (NZ) (Zed {NZ}), Fiorente (Ire), Green Moon (Ire), Efficient (NZ) (Zabeel {NZ}), and of course Saintly (Sky Chase {NZ}).

As mentioned above, a total of eight will arrive to Tuesday having run in the Caulfield Cup, but only one comes through the Cox Plate in Middle Earth, despite the race offering the last golden ticket for ballot-free entry to the grand final. Western Australian star Cosmic Crusader (NZ) (Maurice {Jpn}) is instead nominated for Saturday’s G1 Champions Stakes, while also holding nominations for the G1 Railway Stakes and G1 Northerly Stakes in his home state.

The G3 Geelong Cup has produced three Melbourne winners in the last three decades; Media Puzzle (USA) (Theatrical {Ire}) in 2002, American (USA) in 2010, and Dunaden (Fr) the following year. A trio of runners will try to make the same leap in 2026, headed by race winner Point Of Law, who won the G3 Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket prior to travelling down. He is joined by Vauban (Fr) (Galiway {GB}), aiming for his fourth Cup start, and Onesmoothoperator (USA) (Dialed In {USA}), hoping to be third time lucky.

Twilight Payment (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}) arrived at the 2020 Cup having run third in the G3 Irish St Leger, and Trustyourinstinct (Ire) (Churchill {Ire}), one of five Cup hopefuls for Joseph O’Brien, will try to replicate the feat, having finished fourth in the same event this year.

Knight’s Choice and Prince Of Penzance (NZ) (Pentire {GB}) offer the only other clues, having come through the Bendigo Cup and Moonee Valley Gold Cup respectively. So You Are is the only runner from the Bendigo Cup in the final field, while Juja Kibo is joined by third-placed Mr Monaco (GB) (Territories {Ire}) and three others from Moonee Valley.

Prior to that start, Mr Monaco won the Bart Cummings, the race won by Almandin (Ger) (Monsun {Ger}) in 2016 before his Cup victory. While Half Yours will sit the Melbourne Cup out this year, Mr Monaco will carry the hopes of his owner, Queensland property tycoon Jason Biasin, in Tuesday’s grand final.

Biasin was trackside for this year’s Caulfield Cup.

“I was on track and watching from the same spot on the rails where I was last year when Half Yours won,” he recalled. “Mark Zahra put my horse to sleep in the run and he was starting to travel really well - but then all of a sudden I saw Zahra flying up through the air.

“It sort of seemed like it was slow motion, it was weird and very surreal. We didn't have any information to start with as everything happened so fast.

“Thankfully, I then saw a chestnut horse with a number one saddlecloth come past and I thought, ‘thank God, he's up'. Then you start to think of the other horse and you realise what has happened there. It was a tough day.”

Biasin hasn’t been particularly involved in buying imports, but something about Mr Monaco took his eye. Biasin believes the horse has vastly improved the longer he has been in Australia.

“He has been very impressive this time in, including winning The Bart Cummings,” Biasin said on Sunday. “To be honest with you, I thought his run in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup was terrific. On good ground, I thought he would struggle, but he was four-wide for the trip and ran really well.

“I think on Melbourne Cup Day, if we get some rain, he will be much better on soft going and will be a very good each-way chance.”

Changes to the spring carnival structure mean some of the races that have thrown up previous winners, such as the Mackinnon and the (now) Archer Stakes are no longer the right lead-up races - particularly the Mackinnon, which is now the Champion Stakes.

Breaking new ground

Six in the field will attempt to create a piece of history for themselves by winning the Cup from one of four races that have not produced the winner of any of the last 30 editions. Shockletz (NZ), daughter of previous Cup winner Shocking, will arrive via the G3 Tesio Stakes, however she did, somewhat poetically, win her golden ticket via the Archer Stakes, which was the Lexus Stakes when won by Shocking en route to the Cup in 2009.

“It's taken me 17 years (to get back here),” Laurence Eales, breeder of Shockletz, told racing.com on Monday. “When I went in for the first time, I just thought if he runs in the top 10 that's great as it's an absolute bloody lifetime dream just to have a runner.

“It's different for me this time around. With Shocking, it all happened pretty quick to be honest. The horse won the Lexus on the Saturday and we're off to the Cup on the Tuesday, so we had no time to think about it… We've known since September that she's in the race this time around and I suppose that gives you a lot more time to worry about things you probably don't need to worry about.”

Eales hopes that her father’s qualities shine through when Shockletz lines up with the number 24 saddlecloth on Tuesday.

“Her turn of foot towards the end of her races reminds me (of him),” he said. “We thought early on, 'gee, once she gets it together', as she was very immature. She just kept furnishing and getting stronger, so we didn't know (how good she was) straight away.

“She has that turn of foot. It's all about her relaxing and she's getting a lot better at doing that, so we hope it all comes together on Tuesday.”

Zakouma (Crowded House {GB}) will attempt to better his 11th in the G2 Crystal Mile when he lines up as Grahame Begg’s first Melbourne Cup runner on Tuesday. He ran fifth in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes in the start prior, a race in which Protectionist (Ger) finished fourth ahead of his 2014 Cup win.

Three of Joseph O’Brien’s runners come through the G3 Kilternan Stakes on September 12; second-placed Sons And Lovers (GB) (Study Of Man {Ire}), sixth-placed James J Braddock (GB) (Zarak {Fr}), and 10th-placed Goodie Two Shoes (Ire) (Fastnet Rock), who returns for another crack after finishing second in 2025. Trustyourinstinct won the Group 3 in 2024, as did subsequent Caulfield Cup winner Duke De Sessa (Ire) (Lope De Vega {Ire}) in 2022.

Both Goodie Two Shoes and Trustyourinstinct are owned by a true giant in racing, JP McManus, who will attend the Cup in person for the first time, hoping to walk away with first prize.

“I’ve got up for years, it’s four o’clock Irish time it’s run, but for years, I’ve got up to make sure I watch it,” he told racing.com on Sunday. “It’s great, it’s a must. They’ve both had uninterrupted preparations, so fingers crossed. ”

James J Braddock’s spot in the Cup relies more on his third place in the G1 Epsom Derby back in June, where his poor behaviour threatened to derail his campaign entirely.

“If you were watching it on TV, you wouldn't have seen the half of it,” said O’Brien’s race planner Kevin Blake earlier in the week. “He really, really misbehaved. One of my mentors, he's been working the paddocks in English racing for 40 years and said that's as bad as he's seen before a Derby.

“Joseph (O'Brien) took over from the lad that was leading him - I've never seen him do that before. James J actually nearly knocked him out with a headbutt walking out on the track.”

Fortunately, in Blake’s opinion, the event led to a kinder weight assignment from the handicapper. The now-gelded son of Zarak (Fr) gets in with a slim 53.5kg, four kilos less than the field’s top weight.

“He was handicapped based on what he did that day,” Blake said. “With our optimistic read on that, if he was capable of doing that when he did so much wrong, (then) when he behaves himself and is professional, and he's now gelded, he'll be capable of showing more.”

The time-honoured Ebor Handicap, run over a touch under 2800 metres and dating back to 1843, has provided a ballot-free spot in the Melbourne Cup since 2019, but has yet to produce a winner. The first winner, Mustajeer (GB) (Medicean {GB}), ran in both the 2019 and 2020 Cups but finished near the rear of the field both times. He won the Listed Parramatta Cup for Kris Lees and was second in the G1 Tancred Stakes to Verry Elleegant in 2020.

The fifth golden ticket winner Absurde (Fr) (Fastnet Rock) was the next to travel and he has run in the past three Cups, his best finish being fifth to Knight’s Choice by a length and three quarters in 2024.

The following winners, Magical Zoe (Ire) (Shantou {USA}), Ethical Diamond (Ire) (Awtaad {Ire}), and Daiquiri Bay (GB) (New Bay {GB}), have not taken up the offer. However the 2026 runner-up Hopewell Rock (Ire) (New Bay {GB}), a first Australian runner for George Boughey, will take his chance in what will be, remarkably, his first run in stakes company.

A truly international event

There has perhaps been a prevailing feeling that the internationals have dominated the Cup in recent years, but results demonstrate that may not necessarily be the case. From 28 individual winners in 30 years, just nine were trained internationally while 19 had local trainers. Fourteen of the winners were bred in Australia or New Zealand, and all 14 were trained by local trainers, while 14 were bred overseas.

Of the last 10 editions of the race, four winners were entirely local and two more imported horses were trained by local talent.

From the 2026 field, the numbers are skewed in the favour of international bloodlines winning out - with 18 members of the field being Northern Hemisphere-bred - but the Cup offers a unique platform for the world’s best stayers to compete.

And Cameron Bain, part-owner in Knight’s Choice, is ready to take them all on again.

“It’s taken us two years (to get back here),” Bain told racing.com as he looked forward to his horse’s return to the first Tuesday in November. “It’s been two years of ups and downs, but the horse is really at his peak now. John and Sheila can’t be happier and we’re really happy to be here.”

He will not be there to make up the numbers, either.

“He’s flying and the weather’s looking like it’s going to hold out,” Bain said. “Any horse can win, but he’s flying.”