Cover image courtesy of Magic Millions
To assess the market more closely than headline averages can reveal, we’ve ordered results from each sale by descending price to see how strong each section of the market is. Starting with Book 1 of January’s Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale, we find that trends in the most expensive 25 per cent of horses sold (i.e. the top quarter of the market) are telling.
Following last year’s sale, we were able to see in the numbers what was commonly acknowledged amongst vendors. As the top end pushed to its historic peak, the bottom quarter of the market shrank, averaging just $87,772 compared to $105,181 in 2022. This growth at the top kept the headline metrics high, but that pull on the market appears to have been weaker this year.
The average of the top 25 per cent of the market was $588,894 this year, down significantly from $629,645 last year and even some $10,000 lower than 2022. Meanwhile, the average for the bottom quarter was $84,829, the lowest since 2021, which brought the overall average down to $275,872, where it had stood at a little over $290,000 in both 2023 and 2022.
With a record number of million-dollar lots through the ring (23) this year, Magic Millions won’t have much cause for concern. But, when you put it all together with the dip in clearance rate (albeit a still-impressive 87.8 per cent this year), the figures again back up the tale that was often discussed around the sales ground. There will never be a shortage of hard-luck stories if you talk to underbidders, but these figures do suggest that, more and more, buyers are showing selectivity on the same lots and are being pushed into aggression with those choices lest they leave orders unfilled.
| 2018 | $489,770 |
| 2019 | $482,600 |
| 2020 | $503,606 |
| 2021 | $541,683 |
| 2022 | $597,725 |
| 2023 | $629,645 |
| 2024 | $588,894 |
Table: Average of the top 25 per cent of the yearling market at the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale
Across the ditch, things appeared to swing the other way at the end of January. The top end at New Zealand Bloodstock’s (NZB) Karaka Yearling Sale (Book 1) was stronger than ever this year, climbing to NZ$342,992 from NZ$289,754 last year, whilst the bottom quarter also reached a new peak of NZ$61,833.
That the median also dropped slightly this year from last, from NZ$127,500 down to NZ$120,000, whilst the average rose some NZ$15,000 to NZ$165,745, tells us that Karaka is reaching new heights across the top end.
| 2018 | $110,000 |
| 2019 | $100,000 |
| 2020 | $100,000 |
| 2021 | $90,000 |
| 2022 | $100,000 |
| 2023 | $127,500 |
| 2024 | $120,000 |
Table: Median at the New Zealand Bloodstock Karaka Yearling Sale
Where has this confidence in the New Zealand product come from? With plenty of elite success in Australia last season and a boost to funding at home, perhaps it’s no surprise. Pointing to this propitious “combination”, Te Akau’s David Ellis told The Thoroughbred Report after Day 1 of the sale:
“It’s the most exciting time to be part of New Zealand racing, with what the New Zealand government’s doing, what Entain’s doing and what New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing is doing.”
David Ellis | Image courtesy of Trish Dunell
That New Zealand is considered a top source of quality was confirmed on the same day by Peter Moody, who made a rare splash into the extreme prices when he paid NZ$1.6 million for a Proisir filly (Lot 21) from Hallmark Stud.
As for the more recently concluded Inglis Classic Yearling Sale, the difficulty of analysing a more middle-market sale has been enhanced by the integration of the Book 1 and Highway sessions into a single book this year. Whilst the median and average were both down, there wasn’t much change to speak of if you compared this year’s results to both books combined last year, as we reported on Wednesday.
However, one figure that may be worth paying attention to is that top 25 per cent of the market again. Adding 77 lots on top of last year’s book is bound to have some effect, but the decline in price looks steeper than you might expect. The top quarter of the market this year averaged $185,268, down from $213,681 last year and $242,766 in 2022, which coincides with a declining median.
Given that the Classic Sale is not Inglis’ elite yearling sale, and what we’ve seen at Karaka and Magic Millions, it appears that the middle market is experiencing a decline across the board this year.
Sires and buyers
Without dissecting the numerous and often similar list of names which can be attached to a single docket signing, a look at the number of unique buyer names at each sale can also give a rough indication of the state of the market.
Looking again at the top 25 per cent price-wise, we can see 111 ‘unique buyers’ at Magic Millions. As a proportion of the horses sold within that bracket (208), that’s just over half at 52 per cent (i.e. an average of two horses per buyer), and an almost identical figure emerges from Karaka, where there were 63 individual buyers in the top quarter of the market, which contained 122 horses.
Magic Millions' Gold Coast sales auditorium | Image courtesy of Magic Millions
Perhaps unsurprisingly, there is less exclusivity within the top at the Classic Sale, where there were 110 individual buyers within a top quarter of 168 horses (65 per cent).
The same divide is seen when looking at the dominance of certain sires at the top end too. The concentration of power is most stark at Magic Millions, where just 41 individual sires were found at the top of the market, or one for every five horses sold. Looking back through the years, that’s a typical figure at Magic Millions, as is the roughly one-in-three ratio seen at Karaka this year.
Most prolific at the top end of Magic Millions was, of course, Yarraman Park’s I Am Invincible, who had just three sell in the lower three quarters of the market. It’s a case of the usual suspects following in his wake, with Extreme Choice, Snitzel and Exceed And Excel all with 70 per cent or more of their yearlings making the top quarter of results. Given the hurdles involved, it's less surprising to see ‘visiting’ sires in the same bracket, though still worth a mention are Frankel (GB) (whose four to sell all make the cut) and Savabeel with three out of four.
Gallery: The most prolific sires at the top end of Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale results
The dominance of select sires at the top end is less apparent at Karaka, where Proisir saw 14 yearlings make the top end (of his 27 sold), whilst Savabeel was close behind with 50 per cent of his 42 sold.
Again, Inglis Classic sees the broadest share of riches, with 102 unique sires found representing 168 yearlings in the top quarter of the market this year.
New Zealand Bloodstock's Karaka auditorium | Image courtesy of New Zealand Bloodstock
Colts vs. fillies
As was particularly notable at last year’s Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sale, the willingness of Australasian buyers to splash big money on fillies hasn’t faded at the start of this year’s sales season.
Whilst colts hold the appeal (insert ‘dream’ for the more realistic amongst us) of making a stallion, and significant dividends in the process, a well-bred fillies’ page will always hold a certain value - so the logic goes. Those subscribing to the former rationale appeared to be out in force in January, with the colts’ premium hitting 7.9 per cent at Magic Millions and 10.4 per cent at Karaka, up from 1.3 per cent in both cases last year.
Historically, this year’s trends were close to the norm on the Gold Coast, but represent an upswing over in New Zealand, where the five-year average is a 4.7 per cent colts’ premium. More evidence that Kiwi-breds are gaining recognition? Perhaps.
Gallery: Top fillies and colts at the three resulted Australasian 2024 yearling sales
Inglis’ Classic Sale was, like Magic Millions, true to the five-year trend with a 15.9 per cent colts premium this year. As a sale known for its popularity amongst syndicators, is this proof that those with smaller pockets have bigger dreams?
