Breeding Drain or Racing Gain: More data, bigger picture

Cover image courtesy of The Image Is Everything

Continuing our ongoing investigation into the cost, performance, and long-term impact of Australia’s reliance on imported European racehorses, we've gone back to the source, updated the figures - and the story just got bigger. With 244 auction purchases confirmed at an average landed price nearing half a million dollars - and private sales likely lifting that average further, the numbers paint a clearer picture of where the money is going - but the question of value still looms large.

Breeding Drain or Racing Gain Series

An improvement in data

With our series on the issues surrounding the cost of imported horses gaining plenty of feedback and traction, TTR felt it was important to ensure the data we are basing our commentary on is accurate, and when clever eyes noticed an error, we acknowledged it and worked to fix it.

What’s the best way to resolve an issue with not enough data? Get more data. Our original import story had only 29 horses going through a tried sale, and this was noted as feeling like it was too low. We took the feedback on board, did some crosschecking, realised that the data was indeed too small. After talking to our data source, they identified the issue at their end and ran the query again can present updated data on imported horses through tried horse sales in Europe.

Note that this sales data covers the 732 horses imported from Europe to Australia between 1 July 2020 and 30 June 2024 who have not gone to stud.

Table: Number of horses purchased through different sales with sale date

The seven horses who sold in 2018 and 2019 but weren’t imported until after July 2020 are interesting, and given the time difference, may have been sold privately since then.

This data shows that Australian buyers are becoming more active at these sales, growing from 40 purchases in 2020 to 83 in 2023. The average across the 244 horses in our dataset that sold through a tried horse auction was $405,600 before import costs, so $450,000 landed. However, the 83 horses purchased in 2023 cost $35.7 million at an average of $430,800, or almost $500,000 landed in Australia, so not only are the number of horses purchased at auction increasing year on year, but the average spend is also greater than in earlier years.

Table: Change of private versus public sales over time

This data aligns with our discussions in Part 1 about how the market is changing and how the people we interviewed mentioned that it is becoming harder to buy tried horses privately.

The question of value remains

In Part 1, we determined that private purchases averaged between $500,000 and $600,000 landed per horse. This sale data can now look at how much horses are costing through public auction, and the answer appears very similar.

Table: Cost of imported horses at tried horse auctions

Essentially, a third of horses imported to Australia from Europe in the 2020/21 to 2023/24 seasons went through a tried horse auction. They cost $98.97 million at auction (with an additional $12.2 million in import costs) for a landed total of $111.17 million.

The other two thirds were private sales, and using the estimated cost of $500,000 landed, those horses cost approximately $244 million.

This is a total cost of $355 over four seasons – or approximately $88 million per year for 732 horses. This analysis does not include the current season.

Are they worth the risk?

Taking into account that horse racing is not a game where everyone can win, there is still some expectation around imported geldings from Europe. As Colm Santry said in our first piece, “Racehorse owners want instant gratification by buying these imports. They spent the money on them because three months later they are running in group races. They don’t want to wait, they are prepared to pay highly for a ready-to-go import.”

Crunching the numbers on how many of these horses improved on arrival in Australia, and we’ll let you be the judge of whether that’s a fair risk or not.

Of the 732 horses who arrived here in the four seasons we have data for, 10 were Group 1 winners in Europe, and only one of those won a Group 1 here – eight Group 1s, in fact, since it’s Via Sistina (Ire) (Fastnet Rock). At the other end of the scale, 163 were unraced - and 25 of those remained unraced after arriving here - while 79 were non-winners. Of those 79, 59 improved their race record after arriving here.

Of the group that improved, 16 horses became a Group 1 winner after arriving here.

The solution to a problem in race fields?

In the 2019 Racing NSW Strategic Plan, the PRA outlined the issue with falling foal crops, as well as the exporting of city class horses to Hong Kong, as impacting on field sizes, particularly at city class and above.

“With the backdrop of declining foal crops, lower horse registrations and exports out of NSW, race field sizes have come under further pressure in recent years,” reads the Racing NSW 2019 Strategic Plan.

“A further direct boost to the number of horses in work is needed more urgently. This could be provided by directly importing horses from overseas to race in NSW. The targeted horses could be raced horses in the Northern Hemisphere and New Zealand. Some Northern Hemisphere markets are seen as attractive as the prizemoney in some countries is substantially less when compared to NSW.”

In 2019, Racing NSW proposed a racing club run to import 100 city class horses a season to increase field sizes.

Of particular interest is this comment; “The acquisition of race mares as the majority of imported horses will also help seed the pool of broodmares in coming years. It is envisaged that the acquisition of mares could be as high as 75-80 per cent of the horses acquired.”

When left to the open market, however, the majority of Australian trainers and owners have favoured importing geldings instead. This over reliance isn’t helping the breeding industry use these imports for long term growth.