Breeding drain or racing gain: The shrinking foal crop

Cover image courtesy of Widden Stud

In 20 years, Australia's foal crop has dropped by 39% - from 18,758 in 2005 to 11,529 in 2024. Over that same period, race-day runners have only declined by 7%. The discrepancy raises a fundamental question: how is racing holding up when breeding is pulling back?

The two numbers are not directly comparable, as the runners figure covers all horses from aged two to 12 who raced in a single season, while the foal crop covers all horses born in one year, but the two are related in that both are shrinking, albeit at different rates.

Read our whole 'Breeding Drain or Racing Gain' series:

A shrinking foal crop and what it might mean

With the number of runners reducing at a slower rate than the reduction in the foal crop size, this means there are at least two things occurring. The percentage of foals born who get to the races is improving - so horses are more likely to race than 20 years ago. This is possible with the improvements in veterinary science in that time. And, we are propping up the runners figures with a higher number of imports.

The shrinking foal crop inevitably raises concerns about declining breeder participation.

Ancedotally, the signs are screaming - we're hearing of small breeders exiting the industry or reducing their numbers every day. However, when The Thoroughbred Report requested breeder data from Racing Australia, the organisation declined to provide it - leaving a significant gap in understanding where, and why, the decline is occurring.

“We are seeing a decreasing number of breed-to-race clients," said Widden Stud's Matt Comerford.

“We understand how important breed to race people are, we have a great relationship with them. They are the backbone of the industry. Many big breeders also have a lot of ownership in a lot of racehorses too. It’s part of the commercial business, not just to find quality broodmares but also racing the horses who didn’t make a sale for whatever reason.”

“The cost of production is front of mind as a big issue for everyone. The cost of feed, farriers, staff, it all has to be weighed up properly, and we are hearing a lot of discussion about the cost of training too.

“In running a farm like Widden, there’s a fine margin line with staff costs and feed, and the need to do it properly. We need to work at an elite level to give horses every opportunity to be successful on the track, and this focus helps our stallions, our broodmares and our clients have success.”

The foal crop is potentially becoming more efficient

What does it mean that race-day runners have only declined by 7% over the past 20 years, while the foal crop has fallen by 39%? One possibility is that a higher proportion of foals are making it to the racetrack - suggesting improved efficiency in the breeding-to-racing pipeline. Imports do influence the numbers, but only to a limited extent.

New Zealand imports have remained relatively stable, while European imports have grown to around 600 runners annually - not a significant share of the 28,935 horses that raced last season, but a high number in terms of the approximately $100m invested in their acquisition.

In 2004/05 there were 27,171 mares covered resulting in 18,758 foals (69%), and in 2014/15 there were 19,368 mares covered resulting in 12,992 live foals (67%), while in the past five years, the figure has averaged at 64%.

Table: Broodmare production efficiency in last five years

In his often-misquoted 1995 paper “Wastage in Thoroughbreds,” Dr JM Bourke wrote that “1000 mares produce about 300 horses that race.” Critics like PETA and the RSPCA have used this to claim only 30% of foals race. But read in context, Bourke was describing that 1000 mares produce 500 foals. Of which 300 race. The remaining 200 were unraced in Bourke’s study. The misinformation by the RSPCA etc is that they have imagined 500 extra unraced foals who don’t exist (so 700 unraced including ones never born).

This takes us back to the slower fall in the number of runners each season in Australia compared to the falling foal crop. Is Bourke’s figure improving? Broodmare foal output isn’t changing. Those 1000 mares at stud in his study include the 'Not Served', the missed, and the slipped, to produce 500 foals. But are we seeing an efficiency growth where more than 300 of the 500 are racing now?

The Racing Australia Fact Book doesn't publish this data, however it might be an interesting follow-up study for Agrifutures to look at.

Where is the market shrinking?

Regardless of perceived improvements in how efficiently foals make it to the racetrack, the decline in live foal numbers is stark. Without breeder data from Racing Australia, can we make a guess as to where is the reduction in the foal crop coming from? Have we simply lost the farmer who has a broodmare in the back paddock that gets served by the stallion next door, resulting in a foal that may not race because he had a bad few seasons and can’t afford to put the horse into work?

We know that the number of stallions standing at stud has reduced sharply from 967 in 2004 to 440 in 2023, a drop of 54% in twenty years. Does that mean that the traditional farmer/small breeder has disappeared?

There is one way to estimate which part of the market that the foal crop is shrinking from, and that’s by looking at the ratio of a foal crop who end up being sold as yearlings.

In 2025, the yearlings who went to market were born in 2023 and conceived in 2022. In 2022, 503 Australian based stallions covered 19,446 mares to produce 12,550 live foals born in 2023.

Of the Australian foal crop, 5214 (42%) were catalogued in a physical yearling sale, and 3678 (29%) were sold for a total sum of $526 million in 2025. This leaves 8872 horses born in 2023, just over 70% of the foal crop, who were not sold as yearlings.

Table: Per cent of foal crop offered as yearlings in 2025

The percentages are similar in New Zealand, with only 27% of the foal crop sold as yearlings, leaving 1990 horses unsold as yearlings. The New Zealand Bloodstock National Yearling Sale saw 754 yearlings sold for NZ$88 million.

This data reveals a key truth: breeders are footing the bill for grassroots racing -whether by racing these horses themselves, syndicating with partners, or rolling the dice via trials, online sales, or private deals. A small percentage of foals are sold as weanlings, but often these horses cycle back through the yearling sale ring as pinhooks.

“It’s interesting (that most of the foal crop don’t go sale) because we stand a lot of horses across a lot of viewpoints. Rebel Dane, who sired Golden Slipper winner Fireburn is a value option, Supido is another one, Nicconi has over 70% winners to runners and is not overly expensive. We get good support for them, but it doesn’t feel like breed to race is the focus,” said Comerford.

“The commercial market still feels like the focus for many of our clients. So why aren’t these horses getting to the sales? We’ve seen a reduction in sales with the Victorian VOBIS sale no longer, the number of days at Easter has decreased, but then Magic Millions (Gold Coast) and Classic are growing. Are they going to online sales?”

Some horses are sold as weanlings, some as 2-year-olds, some through the trials and exported to places like Hong Kong. Each of these stages comes with different costs and different risks for owners. Ultimately, the vast majority of foals who could have been sold as yearlings in 2025 were not.

A shift in the marketplace

Returning to the question of where the foal crop is shrinking from, an examination of the foal crop against the number of yearlings sold over time should tell us if breeders are becoming more commercially focused, resulting in a higher percentage foals sold as yearlings, which would mean the breed-to-race section of the market is shrinking.

If the ratio stays the same, then it means the market is shrinking uniformly between breed-to-race and commercial breeders.

Table: Percentage of foal crop sold as yearlings

This table shows that while there are some fluctuations between different years, in general the ratio of the foal crop sold as yearlings hasn’t shifted much in the past 20 years.

Over the last 20 years, the average sits at exactly 30%, meaning 70% of the foal crop hasn’t been sold as yearlings over an extended period of time. 2018 was a strong year commercially, with a peak of 40% of the foal crop selling at auction, while the smallest year was 2009 with 24% of the foal crop sold as yearlings.

“Some people are breeding to retain and race, some are breeding to sell with the fallback of racing the horse if they don’t sell. If the horse isn’t perfect, with a clean scope, good x-rays, and being the right type of horse, they can’t go to sale,” said Cressfield’s Wayne Bedggood.

“Or they go to sale and come home again. It’s becoming difficult to produce the horse that buyers want with the parameters that they are putting on them.”

“It’s hard to get a horse to a sale. We’ve got the horses with the pedigrees (for the top yearling sales) here, but if you don’t have that, your horse has to have all those other things, type, clean x-rays and scope, and even then, most horses will struggle to cover their cost.

“Cressfield has the horses on paper, but even we are finding it tough. There’s an extra layer of onus on us at that level. When you have well-pedigreed horses, there’s an incentive to spend more to get them to sale, more on veterinary fees to correct any issues. A breeder might not spend that on a horse they will race themselves, and often conformation doesn’t impact on racing ability.”

“Being a commercial breeder comes with its own burdens. We lean towards high-priced stallions to get our stock into the sales, but then the foal might never get to market and that’s an awful lot of money spent in the meantime. It’s such an expensive game, especially with training fees and veterinary fees. The whole process is a money drain, and there are so many other things you have to spend money on, that often racing and breeding is a luxurious hobby.”

And that’s the real concern. The foal crop isn’t just shrinking in one sector, it’s shrinking across the board. Commercial operations, hobby breeders, and breed-to-race participants are all feeling the pressure.

This isn’t a niche issue; it’s a systemic one. If the decline continues unchecked, it won’t just reduce the size of the industry - it will reshape its foundation.